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How to do basketball stats


How to Take Statistics at a Basketball Game

Keeping statistics at a basketball game requires a basic understanding of the sport, its rules and the general statistical guidelines. Points scored, fouls, timeouts and game details can be kept in a scoreboard. Keeping assists, turnovers, rebounds, blocked shots and steals requires separate charts -- and multiple statisticians to do the job correctly.

Field Goals

Simply put a 2 or a 3 next to a player's name for a 2- or 3-point shot attempt, then circle the digit if the shot goes in. Or you can compile a shot chart showing the location of each attempt. Record shots by putting the player's number on the appropriate spot on a court diagram. Circle the number if the player makes the shot. Clearly mark 3-point shots outside the 3-point arc on the diagram. Award attempts for clear shots at the basket, even those that are blocked. Award attempts for controlled tips. If a player is fouled in the act of shooting, do not award an attempt unless the shot goes in. Do not award shot attempts for desperate heaves before the buzzer. Award an attempt and make if the official calls defensive goaltending.

Free Throws

Chart free throw attempts by marking a 1 next to a player's name for an attempt. Circle the 1 for a made attempt. For 1-and-1 attempts, use 1+1. If the player misses the front end, there is no second try so mark it as 1+. Do not award a free throw attempt if a shooting team lane violation nullifies the shot.

Passing, Ballhandling

Use one chart by marking an "A" next to a player's name for an assist and "TO" next to the name for turnover. Award assists for passes that directly lead to made 2- or 3-point baskets. Record turnovers whenever a player loses possession of the ball out of bounds or to the other team. If a player throws an errant pass that deflects off a teammate, give the turnover to the passer. Record turnovers for any ballhandling or boundary violation that gives the ball to the opponent. Also record turnovers for offensive fouls committed while in possession of the ball.

Rebounding

Basketball statisticians commonly record offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds and total rebounds. Use separate columns for offensive and defensive rebounds and record them with marks next to the player's name. Award an offensive rebound when an offensive player retrieves a missed shot, directs a missed shot to a teammate, controls a tip-in attempt at the basket or attempts a put-back shot. Award a defensive rebound when a defender retrieves a missed shot attempt or directs a missed shot attempt directly to a teammate.

The primary defensive statistics are blocked shots and steals. Award a blocked shot when a defensive player clearly bats or deflects a shot attempt and causes it to miss. If the shot goes in despite the deflection, do not award a blocked shot. The defender does not need to recover the ball to earn a blocked shot. Award a steal when a defender swipes a dribble, takes the ball from an offensive player's hands or intercepts a pass. The defender must recover the ball or move it directly to a teammate to get the steal. Mark blocked shorts and steals in columns next to the players' names. Since there are not usually many blocked shots and steals in a game, you could simply list them by player number in separate columns as they occur in the game.

How to Keep a Basketball Score Sheet

How to Keep a Basketball Score Sheet

Keeping track of the score in basketball games is something that every person involved in the sport does, even if you are just an avid fan watching the match.

But basketball also includes detailed statistical categories other than the points a team compile when they successfully put the ball into the hoop. If you are tasked to be a scorekeeper, you also have to tally rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers and other important numbers essential in the rules of basketball.

This is not just one of those easy drills as the stats has to be accurate and should not include any discrepancy. If you are new to filling out a basketball stat sheet or you just want to refresh your knowledge of it, then read on as we go through the basics of basketball statistics.

Writing down the players' names and numbers

The first category to fill out consists of the names of the players and their jersey numbers, as well as the names of the coaches. You write down their names on the longest boxes you can see on the stat sheet, then place their numbers on their corresponding small boxes. The boxes for the coaches' names are usually located at the top, right beside the names of the teams. You have to be accurate in writing down their numbers because the referees will do a hand signal of a player's number when he commits a foul.

Moreover, the number printed at the back of a player's jersey is usually the largest one you can see on his uniform, making it easier for you to tally his points when he scores. In terms of the sequence of the players' names, you can list them down numerically so that you can find them on the stat sheet more quickly. After that, you should mark with an asterisk the starting line-up of each team or basically the first five players fielded in by the coaches. You can do this first category of the stat sheet by yourself, or you can ask the coaches or the managers to write them down for you.

Marking Change of Possesion on a Basketball Stat Sheet

Another important non-statistical category in basketball stat sheets is marking the change of possessions. This occurs in jump-ball situations, but there is a big difference between amateur and professional leagues. In amateur leagues, teams only jump for the ball at the start of the game and to begin an overtime period.

If there is a situation when there is a tie-up for the ball, the referees will refer to the scorekeeper to see which team will be rewarded with the possession. That is the main reason why you should be careful in marking this category. It is usually located at the top right corner of basketball stat sheets, in which you encircle the squad who won the first possession.

After that, you then just draw a line through each squad so that you would easily know who will be rewarded with the next possession.

Keeping track of team and individual player points

Now, we dive deep on most vital stat: points. It is the primary reason why we have a stat sheet in basketball. Two essential things to consider is that points are separated into two: team points and individual player points. You record team points through the Running Score section. When a player scores, you just put a slash mark in the corresponding box to keep track of teams' total points. As soon as a quarter ends, you will put the teams' total points in the Quarter Score section. After you record each made basket in the Running Score section, you then proceed to the players' points section. When a player makes a two-point basket, you just write "2" in the box. You write "3" when he successfully hits a three-pointer, then "1" for each free throw made. The individual scores are divided by the four quarters, which means that you have to record somebody's stats under the corresponding quarter.

Recording team and individual player fouls and timeouts

Yet, that is not where basketball stat sheets end. The next critical category you have to track is the fouls. Just like in the scoring section, there are team fouls and players' fouls. When a referee calls a foul, immediately record it at the teams' fouls section so that you would know if they hit the penalty situation. As for the individual fouls, you can see the boxes of the personal fouls beside the scoring section for the players. If someone commits a personal foul, put a slash mark on the "P1" box in the section. If he reaches five fouls, you have to inform the referees because it means that he has fouled out of the game and is not allowed to continue playing. You can also see the technical foul boxes in this section. Should someone be called for a technical foul, put a slash mark on the "T1" box. Bear in mind that a technical foul is also counted on the five allowed fouls for each player, and two technical fouls means that he is ejected from the game. Also, be reminded that timeouts are recorded in the stat sheet. This category is located at the Teams are usually allowed seven timeouts in games, and two timeouts for every quarter. Make sure you got this right so that coaches would know if they have already used up their allowed timeouts.

Tallying assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, turnovers and field goal attempts

Then, there are the other individual basketball stats that you have to keep track of if the tournament's committee deems it necessary. Usually, basketball stat sheets just record points and fouls under the individual categories. However, there is also the possibility that you need to mark down a player's assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, turnovers and field goal makes and misses. Today's coaches have been very mindful of these statistics as a helpful tool in figuring out the strengths, weaknesses and tendencies of their hoopers. But the thing is you cannot track all these stats alone so you have to ask help from two or three more people to watch the plays and mark down the stats.

We start with tracking each player's assists. Usually, point guards are the ones who tally the most assists but basketball has become a positionless game so everyone has the chance to dish out assists. When a player passes the ball to his teammate, who then successfully scores, you immediately mark a slash mark on the assists category of that hooper who passed the ball. Another important stat in basketball is the rebounds. Coaches would always say that a team controls games by controlling the rebounds. As the stats tracker, you have to be alert in identifying which player made the rebound, whether it be on offense or defense. Same with the assists, you just have to put a slash mark at the rebounds category and then just add it up for the total number of rebounds after the game. The next stat categories are defensive stats such as steals and blocks. These defensive stats act as excellent barometer for how players exert tremendous effort on defense, something that has been very underrated because most aspiring basketball athletes only want to score. Again, whenever a defensive player steals the ball or disrupts the passing lane and tips the ball to his teammate, put another slash mark on his corresponding steals section. On the other hand, if defensive players successfully blocks a shot from the opposing team, you just have to do the slash mark you did in the assists, rebounds and steals category. Coaches put a lot of emphasis in their squad's defense, so expect them to really dive deep in looking at their players' steals and blocks tally.

Then their are the other stats like field goal attempts and turnovers. Coaches would want to know how efficient their players are shooting the basketball, which is the main reason why you also have to tally how many times a hooper has shot the ball. Shots are divided by three sections: two-point shots, three-pointers and free throws. Also be reminded that you don't just keep track of how often a player shoots the ball. You should also mark how many times he has successfully put the basketball into the hoop. Through this, his coaches will be able to know how well he is shooting the basketball. Lastly, you also have to track players' turnovers as this is another barometer that tells how teams are executing their offensive plays during the games. When a player is handling the basketball then the defender from the opposing team steals it from him, that is automatically a tally in his turnovers count. Offensive fouls are also counted as turnovers so make sure to ask referees what kind of fouls they are calling.

 

Basketball statistics: where to look and how to apply?

Basketball statistics play an important role. It helps analysts and bettors to learn patterns, current trends, latest trends, to study all the indicators of teams and athletes, to predict the possible result of the match and the total. Many novice players are wondering, where to look for statistics for basketball , what parameters exist and how to use them. The answers to all these questions are available in this material.

What about statistics in basketball?

As you know, the team consists of the main five and reserve performers. Each basketball player plays in his own position. Two athletes are assigned to weak zones, so that at any moment the coach has the opportunity to strengthen the position by releasing fresh blood.

There are three positions in basketball:

  • Forward.
  • Center.
  • Protector.

Each performer has certain skills, the application of which on the site leads to a set of indicators. They determine the player's level and relate to statistics:

  • Glasses.
  • Gears.
  • Interceptions.
  • Block shots.
  • Rebounds.
  • Losses.
  • Fouls.
  • Free throws.
  • Implementation of 2 and 3-point shots.

Basketball statistics. Where to looking for?

There are really a lot of useful sites with statistics on basketball games on the Internet. We tried to choose for our readers the most effective projects that have been operating on the Web for a long time and provide users with reliable information. In addition, statistics are also provided by legal bookmakers. Which of the bookmakers offers the best line and extensive list, read here.

Sports.ru and NBA Stats

The Sports.ru domain has been launched since 1998. This is a sports publishing house that reviews sports in all its manifestations. More than 7 million users visit the portal per month. Relevant materials are published as quickly as possible so that readers are aware of updates from the world of sports.

Ordinary registered users have the opportunity to create their own blog and write about anything. All sports disciplines are covered. Not only news is added, but also interesting collections, polls, notes, videos, etc. In addition, a separate section dedicated to the NBA has been introduced. Most likely, this is a page with statistics from the official supplier - the National Basketball League website, that is, the information here is as accurate as possible. If you do not want to visit the aforementioned Russian-language portal, you can immediately go to the link: stats.nba.com.

These are not just numbers, signs, symbols. The second column is the basketball players. The third is the team they play for. It's three letters because it's an abbreviated name. For example, POR - Portland Trail Blazers, ATL - Atlanta Hawks, DAL - Dallas Mavericks, MIN - Minnesota Timberwolves, etc. The fourth column is the number of games played (G - Games). Fifth - matches in the starting lineup (GS - Games Started). Now let's take a closer look at other points:

  • PPG - Points Per Game - Points per game. Other sites may have the abbreviation PTS, which stands for points (points).
  • RPG - Rebounds Per Game.
  • APG - Assists Per Game - Assists.
  • MPG – Minutes Per Game – Minutes played.
  • EFF - Player Efficiency Rating - Player efficiency rating.
  • FG – Field goal percentage
  • 3P – 3-point – Percentage of 3-point shots made.
  • FT - Free Throw Percentage - The percentage of free throws converted.
  • DEF - Players Defensive Impact - The effectiveness of defensive actions.
  • SPG - Steals Per Game - Interceptions.
  • BPG - Blocks Per Game - Blocks (block shots).
  • PF - Personal fouls - Personal fouls.

There is an option to use a filter by statistical indicators. For example, you need to determine the TOP-5 best basketball players in the league by rebounds, etc.

This is not a complete list of statistical parameters. Only the main ones that are important when predicting basketball matches. There are also additional elements. A complete glossary is available on Wikipedia or on the official NBA website. It is very important for novice bettors to understand the main indicators, as well as to watch live matches in order to understand what the essence of the game is.

Annabet and 24score

Two very similar projects. Both cover the results and statistics for several sports at once:

  • Football.
  • Basketball.
  • Hockey.
  • Tennis.
  • Handball.
  • Baseball.
  • Volleyball.
  • NFL.

Website 24score is a more advanced site. In addition to results, standings, face-to-face confrontations and upcoming matches, the resource offers statistics on totals, halves, and quarters.

Dozens of championships from different countries are available, as well as top tournaments: Euroleague, NBA, VTB United League, World Championship, etc.

A less popular and less popular project is AnnaBet . There are plenty of championships, but there is much less useful information for those who bet on basketball. True, there is one useful feature - a graph that displays the current game form of the teams.

MSN Sport

The project was implemented on the Microsoft News platform. Two sections related to basketball are available to readers and forecasters:

  • NBA.
  • Euroleague.

What the site owners offer:

  • Results.
  • Calendar.
  • Current news.
  • Detailed team and player statistics (NBA only).

Convenient filter by statistical indicators. Moreover, the entire abbreviation has been translated into Russian, and when you hover over the desired element, the full transcript is displayed. For example, SBI - made shots from the field, %SB - the percentage of free throws.

SlamDunk

Another useful basketball resource. The project has been operating since 2000. Updates continue to this day. Both Russian and world basketball, NBA, women's basketball are covered. Here you will find:

  • News.
  • Video.
  • Discussion topics on the forum.
  • Tables.
  • Results of previous meetings.
  • Calendar of upcoming games.
  • Statistics on tournaments and basketball players.

For which competitions the "Statistics" section is provided:

  • Euroleague.
  • WBT United League.
  • NBA.

What indicators are available for analysis:

  • Points.
  • Rebounds.
  • Gears.
  • Interceptions.
  • Block shots.
  • Number of minutes played.

This information is enough to make a competent forecast for the basketball confrontation.

Sofascore

Online resource SofaScore provides users with a lot of useful information:

  • More than 70 basketball leagues.
  • Statistics for all tournaments.
  • Online results.
  • Line-ups.

The data is updated automatically. Add a championship to your favorites and keep an eye on what's happening in the regular season or playoffs.

The site is filled with requested information. For example, select the match you are interested in and in the "Statistics" section you will find not only the number of blocked shots and assists, but also other interesting indicators, for example, the number of timeouts, whether there was overtime, how many points the teams scored, how many were in the lead in total separately hosts and guests, rebounds in attack and defense, etc.

Statistics on betting sites

Very often, players do not have to use third-party resources. By choosing a reputable and high-quality bookmaker, a person gets at his disposal all possible betting tools. These include sections "Results", "Statistics", the "Bet Buyback" function, live video broadcasts, bonuses, promotions and much more. We are interested in statistics. It is available on the websites of most legal betting companies. To get to this section, you must select the item of the same name in the main menu. We analyzed the sections of statistics from different bookmakers and formed a bookmaker rating that provides detailed statistics, and not just the result of games and the standings:

  • 1xbet.
  • Match Center BC Liga Stavok.
  • Marathon.

Three bookmakers at once have weaker (much less useful statistical information) and the same software that produces statistics:

  • 888.ru
  • PariMatch.
  • Olymp.

The same amount of information, but on a different engine, is offered by the FonBet bookmaker.

Conclusion. How to make a basketball prediction based on statistics?

It's time to sum up the intermediate results and answer the question of how to make a competent forecast for a basketball game, having so many useful resources in hand. It is necessary to compare the statistical indicators of the two teams, find out about the current form, the presence of motivation, previous results, face-to-face confrontations, and also thoroughly study the line-ups of the teams.

It is important for defensemen to consider rebounds, interceptions, blocks, turnovers and fouls. For attackers - the implementation of shots from the field, the implementation of free throws, assists, fouls and losses. For centers it is important to consider everything, but the most important thing is the accuracy and efficiency of the transfer.

Such an analysis requires a lot of free time, but this approach will allow you to form the most objective and accurate forecast for basketball.

5, February 2020

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What are the basketball statistics and what to do with it - Personal Folog - Personal Folog - Personal Folog - Personal Fologs - Personal Folla

In 2015, actor Jesse Eisenberg (who played a nerd in Zombieland, a nerd Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network, and turned Lex Luthor into a nerd in Batman v Superman) wrote a great article for New magazine. Yorker titled "An Honest Film Review".

In the article, Eisenberg acted as "Critic" and wrote an imaginary review of a non-existent film. What is the "honesty" of his review? Describing his own thought process, The Critic indicates that he cared little about the film itself.

At first, "The Critic" squirms in his chair when he learns that the film is based on a story that he had in his head a few years ago while studying at film school. Then it turns out that the script was written by a guy who went to college with The Critic but turned out to be more successful in the end. The film itself quickly bores Criticism, since the screening was organized on the other side of the city, where it was terribly inconvenient to get to. After watching the film, "The Critic" decides to drive up to some student, she sends him off and the mood of the "Critic" becomes even worse. At the opening reception, The Critic meets a colleague from The Times magazine. The guy from the Times liked the film, so the Critic decides to specifically write a devastating review of the film purely out of integrity - The Critic was interviewed by the Times, but he was not hired .

In the end, the "Critic" changes his mind and calls the film he saw the best picture of the year, purely out of a desire to get his quote on the poster. "The Critic" also dreams that a girl from his native New Jersey will see his name on a poster, call him, and they will be a couple again.

In short, an article about how people who form other people's opinions themselves are subject to a bunch of cognitive distortions and in the course of their professional activities turn out to be monstrously biased.

But in the NBA, scouts write thousands of reports on tens of thousands of players from all over the world. You just read about this job - away from home, constantly on the road, in dusty and stuffy halls, constantly lack of sleep, terrible life and bad food, the need to digest tons of other people's articles for the sake of information about this or that player (the inevitable influence of the herd instinct) without confidence that this player will ever even get close to the NBA at least at a distance of a cannon shot.

Now imagine yourself in the place of the general manager of the NBA team. And it's okay if you need to make a decision regarding, for example, a bilateral contract with a deep reserve player. What if it's about spending the draft pick, your most valuable asset, on a guy from the Greek second division? And so you start to scout reports that they wrote at half past two in the morning after three liters of lousy coffee. Ideally, you would like to have as much information as possible in your hands to make a decision - videos, scouts' opinions, interview results, partner/coach feedback about the player and, of course, statistics. Without her today nowhere.

In today's sport, managers are very sensitive to ensure that decisions are made as objectively as possible. There are many tools to achieve objectivity. Sam Hinkey, former Gen. Sixers manager and author of The Trial, says that by clinging to one line in a scout report or one phrase thrown in an informal conversation (like "This guy has the best dribbling I've ever seen"), he could force his whole the scouting department write reports specifically on the dribbling of this one player. Farhan Zaidi, who built a dynasty with the Dodgers, claims to practice anonymous polls and often talk to scouts about the same aspect of a particular baseball player's game in almost different rooms in order to form a more or less balanced opinion. Daryl Morey, Gen. a Rockets manager, considers one of the most powerful ways to evaluate his own performance is role reversal: “We don't want to give Kyle Lowry to Toronto for a first-round pick. And if we were in the place of the Raptors, we would consider this pick for Lowry overpaid.

But the distinguishing feature of modern basketball, and sports in general, are numbers. That is statistics. Humanity has not yet come up with a more objective tool for evaluating players when making decisions.

What we understand today as statistics was formed long and painfully. The glasses have always been there. Later, rebounds and assists appeared, but since they appeared already in the 50s, we can assume that they were also almost always there. Minutes per game data, for example, became available in season 1951/52.

In a sense, the 1973/74 season became a breakthrough - then officially they began to count block shots, interceptions, and also began to divide rebounds into those that were made in defense or in attack. Four years later (1977/78), losses began to succumb to numerical measurements, and from 1982 even the number of games in the starting lineup of their total number.

For decades, statistics has evolved like a living organism. When it became clear that the numbers of the same performance in themselves mean little, they began to divide them into 100 possessions or recalculate for 36 minutes. When it became clear that a three-point shot is 50% more valuable than a two-point shot, they came up with eFG%, which takes this moment into account. They began to calculate, for example, the share of rebounds (assistance, interceptions) of one player from the team ones.

More to come. More and more perversions appeared, such as attempts to measure the contribution of one player to the team's final wins (Win Shares) by playing offensively (OWS) or defensively (DWS). There were now multiple layers of statistical madness within a single figure. For example, Offensive Box Plus/Minus calculates the level of offensive play in relation to the level of the average for the league, while it is formed from data recalculated for 100 possessions, and Value over Replacement Player (VORP) also compares the data obtained as part of the Box calculation Plus/Minus with mathematically calculated indicators of the average player in the league.

The whirlwind of all these equations and formulas can make your head spin, but the NBA didn't stop there.

In 2010, the process of introducing systems began to track any movement of basketball players on the parquet. The NBA has partnered with SportVu, a soccer firm that collects data from which to create heat maps and diagrams of the movement of the ball between players. SportVu developed a system that would track and convert into data the movements of all 10 players around the court. In the 2010/11 season, Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma and San Antonio installed SportVu cameras in their arenas, a year later they were joined by Boston and Golden State, and before the season - In 2013/14, the NBA mandated that this system be installed in all arenas in the league.

(By the way, in the 2017/18 season, the NBA changed its partner and instead of SportVu entered into an agreement with Second Spectrum. As far as I understand, the essence of the technology has remained the same).

In short, a nuclear bomb was dropped on the world of basketball statistics, the shock wave after the explosion of which is still felt. The NBA received a completely new tool for evaluating players, who now had nowhere to hide to hide their shortcomings.

Thanks to “video surveillance” systems, everyone, both inside the league and outside it, has access to data on how much a player runs per match and at what speed, from what point on the court he shoots more/less often or more accurately/worse, how much he on average holds the ball in his hands, how many shots to the floor he makes on average for each separate period of possession of the ball in offense and how far he is from the ball when rebounding in attack / defense.

This is how it all looks like:

If we bring all the existing statistical parameters into one simple scheme, we get the following picture:

1. Statistics

2. Metrics

2.1. Formula

2.2. Observables

3. Secret data

Statistics - this is the most elementary thing in which basketball is measured: points, rebounds, assists.

Pros : easy to calculate and explain.

Cons : Gives a very limited view of the game.

Basic statistics, unsurprisingly, gives a basic idea of ​​the game as an individual player, and can be a reason to think about the accents of the game as a whole.

Even the simplest indicators can carry significant value. For example, it is known that among the main statistical indicators, the number of victories on the team's account today (information for the 2016/17 season) is best correlated with:

  1. game hit percentage
  2. percentage of three-pointers made
  3. total number of 3-pointers made
  4. assist-to-loss ratio

Not advanced math, of course, but these four points give a good idea of ​​what a good team must do to win. Minnesota, New York and Sacramento threw the fewest three-pointers in the 2017/18 season. Orlando, Lakers and Phoenix hit the worst from afar.

Bad teams play badly – ​​no wonder. But it's important to notice when a seemingly decent team fails at some base metric, because that element can be one of the factors that explains the lower than expected bottom line. Denver, for example, last year allowed opponents to hit with the highest percentage from beyond the three-point arc. "Minnesota", as noted above, was on the list of teams that are less likely than others to throw from afar.

Based on simple numbers, more global conclusions about the game can be confirmed. For example, NBA teams averaged just 9.7 offensive rebounds in 2017-18, the lowest number in history since offensive rebounds began counting. The number of free throws has also reached an all-time low. On the other hand, for the first time in the league over the past three seasons, there has been a history of teams shooting more three-pointers than free throws. And if in the 2015/16 season the gap was small (24.1 3PA versus 23.4 FTA), now it can already be called significant (29.0 3PA vs. 21.7 FTA).

Here are three factors that form the picture of modern basketball. He is fast, three-pointer, and as soft as possible for the players (less fighting under the boards due to the emphasis on stretching and finding spaces) and spectators (less stoppages for free kicks). In other words, fun and pleasing to the eye. So it's not surprising that the popularity of the NBA is growing in line with how much more attractive the game itself becomes.

Formula statistics is what is called "advanced statistics". This can include all kinds of statistics, within which more complex mathematical calculations are used, such as recalculation for possessions or the ratio of one indicator to another.

Pros : provide a more advanced understanding of basketball.

Cons : harder to understand and use, rarely mentioned in fan discussions.

Dean Oliver, who wrote Basketball on Paper in 2004, is considered to be the father of advanced basketball statistics. Oliver is basketball Bill James who opened the door to baseball cybermetrics.

It is Oliver who is the creator of the "four factors for basketball success" system. In this quartet he included:

  • effective shooting percentage (eFG%) taking into account the difference in value between two-point and three-point shots
  • percentage of losses (TOV%) - the number of losses per 100 possessions
  • rebound percentage (RB%) - number of defensive and offensive rebounds out of total available rebounds
  • Free throw rating (FTr) - the ratio of free throws to the total number of shots taken by both teams

Oliver distributed the importance of each factor as follows: 40% of success depends on the accuracy of the shots, 25% - on the percentage of losses, 20% - on the percentage of rebounds and 15% - on free throws.

As you can see, the structure is very similar to the four factors needed to win that I gave in the section on regular statistics. However, in 2004, such innovation blew people's heads off.

Within the framework of formula statistics, everyone can exercise even until they are blue in the face. For example, John Hollinger's well-known PER indicator is built on a complex formula, which is still based on elementary shows - points, shots, assists, that's all. The advancement of PER lies in the fact that (a) it is calculated based on the pace of the game and compares the performance of a player with the average level in the league (b) is one of the most publicized versions of the so-called "all in one" statistics that try to express the game of any player in one single figure.

Of course, PER is controversial. One of the most telling examples is that Bruce Bowen has an average career PER of 8.2. PER for good players is in the region of 18-20, and 8.2 for Bowen indicates that he should not have become a three-time league champion, but immediately go to the VTB league.

Or here is another interesting example of the use of advanced statistics - the legacy of Carmelo Anthony.

On the one hand, 10 all-star appearances, 6 All-NBA All-NBA teams and the status of a capricious but prominent player of his era, one of the league's leading scorers for a decade and a half. It seems like he should fight Alex English in the list of players of all time.

And if you look at Melo's advanced stats:

  • isn't even in the top 250 in history in terms of career offense rating
  • is not in the top 250 for TS%, a measure of shot conversion that includes 2-point, 3-point and free throw shots in one formula
  • ranked 98th all-time in Offensive Box Plus/Minus and 115th in VORP
  • Win Shares 48 minutes tied with Corey Maggetti for 215th

"Observed" metrics I named all the data that is tracked precisely thanks to systems like SportVu, and also provided by paid services like Synergy.

Pros of : professional understanding of the game, visibility, maximum depth and accessibility available to the layman.

Cons : a huge amount of information, impossible to digest if not professionally involved in basketball as a scout, manager or professional journalist.

This is the level of detail of the game, which was made for 1% of nerds and those who are financially connected with basketball in one way or another. The opportunity to watch Charlotte's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist shoot from the middle after receiving the ball from the screen or get offensive rebounds is, in most cases, the lot of those who are paid to do it.

On the other hand, it was the ability to track players' shots that eventually turned into user-friendly signs for the implementation of shots from different zones. The pioneer of such charts was Kirk Goldsberry, who, by the way, now works in the analytical department of the San Antonio. You probably remember him from these pictures:

It is thanks to the “observed” metrics that we can question the usefulness and effectiveness of Russell Westbrook’s game, because now we know that he occupies one of the last places in the league in terms of distance from the player at the time of the shot on defense, and also fumbles excessively with the ball (league leader in ball control time, number of shots to the floor on average) and fills himself with empty rebounds (very high rate of unopposed rebounds) at the expense of Stephen Adams (one of the best players in the league for rebounding), throws a lot from the dribble (10. 3 per game, 1st in the league) and does it extremely inaccurately (39.4% eFG%, 4th worst in the league).

But in fact, with the analysis of data obtained as a result of observations of the actions of players on the court, everything is not at all simple. Surely all these systems greatly simplify the process of preparing for matches by the teams themselves, but for outside observers, most of the available information is of little use. In the end, any metrics are just a reflection of what happened. Fortunately or unfortunately, humanity has not yet come up with such systems that would evaluate the correctness of the decisions made on the site, the timeliness of changes in defense, or the effectiveness of various nuances like screens.

Even with all the information we have available, we find ourselves unable to penetrate the brains of coaches who make a game plan and into the heads of basketball players who implement this plan correctly or incorrectly. We see what happened, but we don’t yet know what should have happened - where the player should have passed the ball or in which direction to take an extra step in order to increase his chances of success at the end of the episode.

Basketball is not yet calculated to such an extent. This is a non-linear game. The NBA certainly doesn't stop at trying to figure it out.

NBA team secrets

Naturally, here we have to enter the territory of conjecture and assumptions.

What aspects of the game can be affected by some internal models and metrics created on the basis of the analytical departments of the clubs? Yes to everything. Each NBA team has its own:

  • methods for assessing the current state of players and predicting their future performances
  • algorithms for negotiating and calculating the potential and optimal cost of each player
  • data to analyze the quality of decisions made by players on the court
  • tables evaluating the value of draft picks
  • interview results with thousands of potential newcomers
  • player injury and health data

At the same time, it is not known to what extent in the internal discussions of scouts and club managers the usual statistical calculations known to the inhabitants are quoted. Daryl Morey (pictured), for example, admitted during a Q&A session on Reddit that even the most sophisticated “amateur” models and metrics are almost never used in decision-making within NBA teams. He also called defensive play "super-contextual stuff" and noted that no amateur has enough data to fully analyze the quality of an individual player's defensive skills through some kind of ratings or statistics.

As a result, it turns out that all our conversations and discussions of players, most likely, cannot be compared with how players are evaluated within the NBA itself. So when it seems to us that we understand the motives for a draft pick, trade or signing, then this is probably a misleading impression.

What, then, remains to be done by a simple fan who wants to get a little better into the intricacies of the NBA?

In English there is a concept of an eye test - this is a personal impression of the player's actions, his behavior on and off the court. It turns out that the most accessible metric for a basketball fan is still the old-fashioned method of evaluation through a subjective view.


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