How to handicap college basketball

Using 'efficiency' to handicap pro and college basketball - How To Bet On Sports - News

If you listen to analytics-minded basketball handicappers, you’ll often hear the term “efficiency” being bandied about. If you’re not using offensive and defensive efficiency in your own handicapping process, you’re really behind the curve. The modern betting marketplace is driven by analytics. Efficiency is what makes the motor run in basketball.

What is offensive or defensive efficiency? The simplest way to think about it is “scoring adjusted for pace.” Basketball fans are no longer at the mercy of TV or radio announcers saying a team has a “good defense” just because it happens to hold on to the ball for a long time on offense. Conversely, you won’t be misled by announcers saying that a fast-paced team plays “bad defense” when that’s actually an illusion created by possession counts. 

If you’re of a certain age, you’ll remember that the media used to rave about Princeton’s defense before the shot-clock era because the Ivy League power played such low-scoring games. If your games are ending 52-50, that must be due to great defense, right? Made sense until you watched Princeton on TV and realized it didn’t have great shot blockers or defensive rebounders or swift sprinters disrupting passing lanes. Princeton’s defensive skill sets were mortal. Its games were low-scoring because the offense held on to the ball forever trying to create back-door cuts for layups. 

It’s one of the ironies of the semi-recent era that the media raved about Princeton’s defense, but it was ultimately the principals of the Princeton offense that spread through the sport. 

On the other side of the floor, way too many in the mainstream media derided Golden State’s defense because the Warriors played such high-scoring games. They were a team with rebounders, shot blockers, speed and the ability to force turnovers by taking opponents out of their comfort zone. When you adjust for possession count during this recent dynasty, the Warriors always graded out as fantastic on defense. The games were high-scoring because it was racehorse basketball. Golden State’s defensive skill sets were a big reason it used to dominate the spot. 

How do you calculate offensive and defensive efficiency?

— Offense: Points divided by the number of possessions.

— Defense: Points allowed divided by the number of possessions.

Sometimes you’ll see it expressed numerically as “points per 100 possessions.” Other times, it’s simply “points per possession.” If you prefer your handicapping diet to have numbers that say 1.023 or 0.984, then use per possession. If you’d rather see 102.3 or 98.4, use 100 possessions. What matters most is what you learn from the numbers, not where the decimal point goes.  

How do you calculate the number of possessions? 

The standard formula for estimating possession counts used by the field (as first presented publicly in “Basketball on Paper” by Dean Oliver in his landmark 2004 book) is shot attempts minus offensive rebounds plus offensive turnovers plus 0. 44 times the number of free throw attempts. If you’re not comfortable using a spreadsheet, you can get close enough for learning purposes at a glance by using half the number of free throw attempts rather than 0.44 — a difference so slight it won’t influence the conclusions you’ll draw. 

Of course, the easiest thing to do is to visit websites that do all the math for you! 

NBA: “Hollinger Team Stats” at ESPN show offensive and defensive efficiency on the far right side of the chart. You can click on the column header to sort from best to worst. The first column is pace, if you’re just interested in possessions per game for each team. 

College: Ken Pomeroy’s home page at kenpom.com goes a step further and adjusts everyone’s efficiency based on the caliber of opposition. There’s also a column for adjusted tempo that accounts for the pace of opponents. 

The smartest influences in the betting markets have been using variations of these concepts for years. Dean Oliver’s book came out well over a decade ago. And he was the first author to publish the math for public consumption. Some sharp syndicates were betting on pace, particularly on Over/Unders, in previous decades. It has become publicly known in recent years that legendary North Carolina coach Dean Smith used the concept of adjusting stats for possessions as far back as 1959.

Here’s an example of possible illusions created by not adjusting for pace. 

Let’s say Saint Mary’s had these points-per-game rankings:

— Saint Mary’s on offense: No. 42 in the nation.

— Saint Mary’s on defense: No. 32 in the nation.

Because even current-day announcers are prone to use raw stats rather than ones adjusted for pace, you’ll still hear analysts suggesting that Saint Mary’s has a strong defense that helps maintain its status as a power out west. The offense isn’t quite as good, but this is a “balanced” team led by its defense. 

The problem is, Saint Mary’s is like Princeton. The Gaels are very patient with the ball, which can create misleadingly low scores because of a slow pace. 

Saint Mary’s rankings after pace adjustments:

— Saint Mary’s on offense: No. 1 in the nation.

— Saint Mary’s on defense: No. 121 in the nation.

This isn’t a balanced team that’s slightly better on defense than offense. Not at all! This is actually a very smart offense that consistently gives itself good shots — but the Gaels are awful on defense by the standards of quality teams. They’re not even in the top 100 nationally in points allowed per possession. 

We’re not going to suggest this happens to all college or pro teams. Many play near the national or NBA average in pace, so their scoring stats aren’t misleading. But teams on the extreme end, either very slow or very fast, will have illusions created by their scoring averages that are compounded by the media’s tendency to use any positive stat it can find to hype a corporate partner. As handicappers and bettors, you must dig to learn the truth about the real skill sets of teams on both sides of the floor so you can make smart bets.

How To Handicap College Basketball Games And Win

How to Handicap College Basketball Games Successfully

If you are a great College Football handicapper, you may want to try your hand at another game—college basketball. Of course, there are major differences involved in handicapping college hoop. One of which is there are three times as many Division I basketball teams as there are NCAA Division I Football teams. College basketball is a whole new game, but it is worth pursuing, as there are hundreds of wagering opportunities each and every week of the season.

College basketball handicapping doesn’t begin during the start of the regular season. It starts right after the NCAA Tournament is over and the National Championship has been decided. Players are graduating, new players are coming up, coaches are leaving team and new ones are coming into the fold. It’s a major time for transitions.

This is a good time to simply tie things up from the season that just ended. During the summer, monitor the major sports sites such as Fox and ESPN to keep up on any happenings. You should know which players are deciding to enter the NBA Draft early and which are graduating. During the off-season, you’ll also need to keep up on any players who have lingering injuries, any who face suspension for disciplinary or academic reasons and other such events.

The college basketball scene starts to heat up in the very late summer and early fall. That’s when the preview magazines come out with team rosters, stats and projections. Use these as a foundation for your handicapping. They are the initial part of your research for the upcoming college basketball season but they are just one small part of the research you’ll need to perform to be a successful handicapper. Be sure to pay attention to any freshmen who could be major difference makers, to returning vets and players who look they may have a breakout season. You’ll also find helpful previews online at the major sports sites.

Here are a few things to consider. A rookie team with a lot of talent and a veteran head coach will make mistakes at the start of the season but could be contenders partway through as they gel. A coaching change may result in a whole new system being adapted and that can really throw off a team as they adjust to the new style. Also, when a new coach comes in some promising recruits may elect to attend another school and top players may decide to transfer out to another program. Where did those top players go? Chances are they will have to sit out a year before they can play for their new school. But maybe the waiting is over and this is the year they get to take to the court.

Look at that returning NCAA Championship team. Are they coming back loaded for another run or decimated and having to rebuild? One of the tough things about college basketball is that premium players will often leave for the pros after one or two seasons, which creates a lot of instability and surprises.

In college basketball betting, one new major player can make a big difference. That huge, big bodied center, that major playmaker or that top notch outside shooter can get a college basketball team to a whole new level.

This is the time to see which clubs are rising, which are falling and which ones are pretty much remaining stable. Look for teams that are ready to breakout, especially at the start of the season when nonconference play is in effect. They may play a bunch of weak clubs and could have a big against the spread run in them.

Consider each team’s schedule, both nonconference and conference games. Some great teams end up with relatively light schedules and some have a list of daunting teams they have to face. Even within conferences, you’ll find disparity in schedules as in many leagues some teams may see some opponents once and others twice. Strength of schedule plays a major role in a team’s ability to win.

Before the season starts is the time to search for and to predict the unpredictable. You want to be ahead of all of those people who report and comment for the sports magazines and newspapers and who talk it up on the airwaves.

College basketball, like the NBA, has no wall between the fans and the court. Plus, many college teams have vociferous fans that can make a huge difference in home games. Consider team travel, home court and fan influence on officials when handicapping a game. Also, look for clubs that struggle on the road and those that excel when away from home. Likewise, you will find teams that are unbeatable when on their home court.

The college basketball season starts in November and ends near the beginning of April. That includes March Madness, which begins in the middle of the third month of the year. For about five months, you’ll have a huge number of betting opportunities as each Division I college basketball team plays about 32 regular season games with the first 18 or so being nonconference contests. These nonconference games often offer huge mismatches that sports bettors can exploit when wagering on the spread and over/under.

Because there are so many conferences and teams, it’s best to focus on two to four conferences and their opponents. The majors are the ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-10 and Big East. But you don’t have to limit yourself to these conferences. You may want to focus on two or three majors and then a mid-major or two such as the Missouri Valley, Western Athletic or Conference-USA. You can certainly pick and choose teams from other conferences too. The point on focusing on specific conferences is to help alleviate the clutter of having so many teams, matchups, and lines to consider. A weekend of handicapping and making college basketball picks on all the conferences can make your head spin.

As the season starts, monitor various sites, including fan and sports websites and the NCAA Basketball site. Follow the teams, study the box scores and the stats and be sure to immerse yourself in the games. You won’t be able to watch as many games as you should but you can certainly watch highlights and the major sports shows.

Scour the early college basketball lines that are posted the night before. These tend to be soft and offer some good bets to the sharp handicapper. Before betting do your matchups, check to see if there have been any injuries or suspensions and where the teams are as far as the fatigue factor, recent wins and loses and other areas are concerned. Some teams get tired, others give up during the season, some take time to gel and others rebound after a major loss. Carefully consider that undefeated team and when they are most vulnerable for that surprising loss. In big games with stifling defenses, look to each team’s free throw percentage. This will often determine the outcome as to which teams covers the spread.

And always consider the coach. College basketball coaches have different styles and schemes. Some are amazing strategists, some are masters at that last second win and others get their clubs to play a highly disciplined game. Some are great off a heartbreaking loss, while you can just about pencil in others to fall flat on their face in the same situation.

When you find something you like, go for it. There is a lot of money to be made betting NCAA basketball and that is what makes college basketball picks a great opportunity for every sports bettor who wants to put in the time.

Be sure to do your homework when it comes to college basketball handicapping. It will pay off when you go to make your college basketball picks. Always look for the edge, the skinny and where the smart money is. The college basketball season is a primo time to make cash.

Handicap (handicap) in basketball betting

Most bettors prefer such types of bets as outcome and handicap. Such markets are much easier to feel, to assess the probability of a clear victory of the team or with a handicap advantage. In this article, we will understand what a handicap is in basketball betting, in which cases it is better to bet on a favorite, and in which cases it is better to bet on an outsider.

Terminology

Handicap (handicap) is the difference in the score of the match, which adds up to the final result of the team. This parameter is used to determine how winning the coupon turned out to be.

For example, if you see this entry: F1 (+12), then it will mean that the first team will lose, but the difference will be no more than 12 points.

What exactly will be the size of the handicap, analysts determine, and at the same time they leave the estimated outcome of the game.

Buy-sell handicap is a variation of the handicap value until the required value is reached. The handicap shift step is determined by the odds and the corresponding adjustment by the betting analysts.

Limiting the ranges of buying handicaps are set by the bookmaker, but those offers that are, most often enough, based on them, choose the option that suits you best.

Leading domestic offices for selling odds:

• 1xbet.
• Marathon.
• Bet City.
• Winline.
• FonBet.
• PariMatch.

TOP foreign offices for selling odds:

• Pinnacle.
• Bobbet.
• Bet365.

Format classification. What are the types of handicaps?

• Integer, e.g. F1 (+12) . Expressed as the difference in points between the winner and the loser. If it turns out that according to the results of the match, both teams have an equal handicap, then the bet amount is returned at a coefficient equal to 1.
• Fractional, for example, H2 (-6.5). This type of handicap is completely identical to the integer handicap with one exception. Since the value of the handicap for any outcome is a multiple of 0.5, then a refund is not provided.
• Zero. Designated as F1 (0) . A zero bet is the same as when a team wins, as the value that is added to the result will always be zero.

Consider the following examples:

The match is over. The score of the teams is 129:120 respectively.

• F2 (+12). In this case, the winning bet, because the first team beat the second by only 9 points.
• F2 (+8.5). This move is a losing one.
• F2 (+9). The bookmaker's office conducts a refund with a coefficient equal to one.

Today, few bookmakers offer to bet on the European handicap. This type of handicap has significant differences compared to its Asian version. Under the terms of the European handicap, the player on the bets has the possibility of a return, and a draw is also possible.

Specificity of bets on the favorite

Many bettors start with negative odds. Probably, this phenomenon is due to the fact that when betting on popular sports such as football, players primarily pay attention to such popular teams as Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid and others. As you know, the football of such teams is extremely unpredictable, and even if there is a favorite, there is a high probability of an error.

If you made a bet on the favorite, then in order to win it is necessary that the favorite wins and not just wins, but with a certain difference.

It is also worth considering the fact that today the favorites are not aimed at defeating the enemy. They actually play on two fronts and it is not worth counting on the fact that they will give everything and defeat the enemy. Although sometimes breaking through the handicap to 3.5 can still play, but already on fouls. And this means that it is much more difficult to find a value option in a favorite than in an outsider.

There are several factors that can attract a favorite to break a handicap. They include the following parameters:

• Tournament motivation.
• Previous losses from an opponent.
• Favorite potential.
• Player injuries.
• Game frequency.
• Fatigue.

Let's analyze the above factors in more detail.

Hidden and Tournament Motivation

Home/Away playoffs are quite rare in basketball. However, it should be understood that in these types of matches, the specifics of bets are due to the fact that teams in the first match try to make a difference on points, and keep this difference in the next match.

Bookmakers most often take this fact into account, but if the favorite loses already in the first game, then a handicap is set for the second match much higher than no one would bet before the first game.

If, in order to advance further in the tournament bracket, the favorite needs to score 17 points, then the handicap will be set at (-17.5). In this case, provided that all other factors speak for the victory of the favorite, it is worth making a bet.

Motivation as a factor is quite often underestimated in the second rounds of championships.

Since according to the regulations in such competitions, provided that the points of both teams are equal, the victory is given to the team that at the time of the game won more often during personal meetings. If the score in the season series is equal to the ratio of 1:1, then in this case the victory is given by points.

Relatively speaking, if the first team lost by 6 points in the first round, then in the return match the team will be motivated to win with a larger difference, that is, from 7 points or more, because it needs an advantage in head-to-head matches. However, despite this, the bookmaker is unlikely to take the risk and put the line more than (-4.5), since they will not pay such attention to the motivation factor. Here we can already talk about valuation in a negative handicap.

Sports anger factor

Usually sports anger is inherent in top teams. A basketball club may give all its best on the condition that:

• before the game there was a serious defeat from this team;
• rout in the game the day before;
• revenge for the scandalous actions of the opponent.

However, you should not completely rely on this factor alone, as teams very rarely show their best qualities in the right conditions.

Factor of "carrying ability"

If a team with an enviable frequency wins by a large margin, then such a team can be considered "carrying out". Today, large handicaps are made in basketball, as a rule, due to a successful defense game or a quick and active attack.

The most suitable favorite in basketball is always a team that scores more than 85 points and concedes no more than 75 points. Those teams that are good at both defense and offense are best suited for betting on minus handicap.

Injury Factor

It is often joked in the betting community that it is much more profitable to bet on "crooked and oblique" because the public takes various news about injuries of athletes too seriously, as well as how this will ultimately affect betting line.

If a person decides to make bets taking into account such information, then it is necessary to understand the importance of each specific case, because it often happens that the news factor both plays in the match and does not play, however, it can affect the game in subsequent games of this commands.

European basketball differs significantly from the NBA in this regard, because in Europe basketball is a purely team game and victory to one degree or another depends on the teamwork of the team, and not on the injury or illness of an individual player. The impact of injury on the outcome of the meeting varies greatly if the team has or does not have a strong bench.

Fatigue factor

Since recently, when the FIBA ​​Cup and the Champions League came into being, teams in Europe began to play noticeably more often, and to be more precise 2 or even 3 times in one week. For professional players, however, this does not cause much difficulty, but if you add constant flights, injuries, buses, etc. to all this, it becomes obvious that this can still seriously affect the efficiency of players. Sometimes an overly complicated schedule knocks the team out of its rhythm and then the most likely outcome is defeat.

The specifics of betting on outsiders

Betting on outsiders is extremely difficult, because even psychologically we always expect that the team we bet our money on will win.

However, from the point of view of effective rates, this decision will be correct. When betting on outsiders, that is, with a positive bet, you can win, provided that the handicap has been kept or if the outsider wins.

When betting on an outsider, you will always have margin.

The most suitable situations for betting on underdogs

• the end of the meetings the team spends on "total under";
• high odds penetration potential;
• there are very real chances of winning.

If the total is less, then the team is playing effective games in defense, which means that it will be extremely difficult to beat the team. In such a situation, it is best to consider how effectively the club on which you are going to put a plus handicap plays in defense.

Trends indicate how much better a team is playing compared to what bookmakers and the public expect from it. This factor most often includes such conditions as the support of the stands and the high level of team motivation, in addition, fast-growing trends can be observed if the public underestimates players who do not make points for the team, but take the ball and make passes, that is, they do the most dirty work. By clicking on the link, you can see the official statistics of breaking through handicaps in the NBA:

Summary

The most important rule is not to bet on the expectation of an underdog losing by a certain margin. For example, if the bet you want to place looks like this: H2 (+9), then you need to be unambiguously sure that the outsider will win. Otherwise, the advantage over the line will be insufficient.

As an exception, bets on handicap Away (+25), as well as higher, can be distinguished here. The specificity of such bets lies in the fact that the general statistics of the team and various strategic permutations of the players, as well as the presence of errors of bookmaker analysts, are more valued here.

February 16, 2020

No comments

Bukmekerov.net is a site about bookmakers in Russia (primarily) and the CIS in general. We specialize in legal companies. We write without censorship.

We DO NOT accept bets, DO NOT sell predictions, DO NOT encourage gambling in any form.

Authors

Contacts0003

IMPORTANT