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How to read basketball stats in the newspaper
How to read basketball stats in the newspaper
Reading the Box Score – Coach's Climb
“Wake up in the morning, take a shower, and have breakfast over the box scores. It’s the perfect way to start a day.”
Key Takeaways:
- Where was the game won?
- Estimated Pace of Play
- Numbers that Stand Out
My parents would grab the newspaper and I’d steal the sports section as soon as they’d set it down. Modern morning routines may have changed since Basketball on Paper was published, but box scores still serve a purpose for any coach during or after any game. During my childhood, the focal point while reading these box scores was to simply look at the overall scores and how my favorite players performed. As a coach, my priorities haven’t necessarily changed, but I’d like to think the process to do it has become a bit more thorough in evaluation.
“The first thing to understand about a game is whether it was won on the offensive end or defensive end and, for that, I always look at the pace of the game to get the team’s ratings.![]()
”
Unfortunately at the high-school level in the state of Massachusetts traditional box scores are unavailable during or following any game. While as an assistant at the college level print-outs were available during media timeouts and half-time. On first observation my eyes tended to gravitate towards three statistics that I felt heavily influenced the outcome:
A team’s shooting percentage shifts either team’s style of play throughout the course of a game. If opponents are knocking down shots it forces you to go against set defenses often, thus relying upon efficient offense on a halfcourt. From a defensive perspective, it often applies more pressure to string stops together, subsequently leading to possibly more fouls or uncharacteristic decision-making. Which team is applying more pressure by making shots?
Assists-to-turnover ratio can tell the story of possession by possession.
Depending on the intended style of play for a team it can answer questions of ball movement, ball-control, and defensive pressure particularly on-the-ball or in the passing lanes.
- Free-Throws (Percentages & Attempts)
Free-throws are possible free points. And good defenses don’t give anything for free. Our coaching staff rule of thumb is to seek more free-throws made than our opponent’s attempts.
From these statistics we can start to generate an idea of what swayed the scoreboard and on which side of the floor was most influential. To get a quick estimation of the pace of play, Dean Oliver references this formula:
Poss. = FGA – OR + TOV + 0.4 x FTA
A quick estimation for the number of possessions can give an interpretation into the pace of play, in addition to the offensive/defensive efficiency ratings. Some of the greatest coaches in history – Dean Smith and Frank McGuire – emphasized points per possession to compare previous performances with average efficiency.
Unfortunately making comparisons to previous box scores doesn’t change the results. The ensuing tweet by Coach Chris Oliver looks into the numbers in the midst of the game to make any possible adjustments.
Coaches, @GregWhite32 and I were having a discussion about "in game stat charting" Help us. What do you want to know in a game?
During live action?
At quarters?
At half time? pic.twitter.com/tTnray5NwI
— Chris Oliver (@BBallImmersion) May 12, 2020
Our program generally prioritizes four statistics to articulate to the team:
- Kills (3 defensive stops in a row)
- Offensive Rebounds (2nd chances)
- Assist/Turnovers
- +/- Paint Touches (Team vs. Opponent)
Three of the four are traditional box score numbers; paint touches are becoming more commonly kept by staff’s across the country. Despite the lack of accessibility of box scores, our staff does a great job recording these numbers throughout the course of any game to assess any trends that are taking place to make any adjustments we see fit.
The evaluation of these four statistics are intended to get a decent understanding of our defense and offense. There is quite a bit of overlap with 2nd chances, A/TOs, and paint touches. The kills are indicative of stringing stops together instead of exchanging baskets. Second chance opportunities are a huge aspect of any game and charting this statistic can help answer the question of finishing possessions defensively or creating extra scoring chances. Assist to turnover for the reasons we already discussed, but paint touches are all about pressure and conversion. It is one thing to puncture the paint increasing our probability of high percentage shots whether field goal attempts at the rim or getting good looks from inside-out field goal attempts. It is another thing to actually convert on those paint touches. So we gauge the number of paint touches per quarter with the efficiency of those paint touches to determine which team is more in attack mode and is finishing given the opportunities.
The box score is a great way to clearly communicate to the team performance without using coach-speak. Often times we want to go into a locker room or a huddle during a time-out to reference we aren’t playing hard enough or don’t want it as bad as they do as motivation. In some moments it can rally the troops, but there isn’t anything tangible that resonates with the players. Whatever the key statistics are in your program that identify with your style of play, those are the talking points to communicate for future adjustments.
- If you are a team that looks to get out in the passing lanes or apply a ton of ball-pressure, what are the numbers of deflections?
- Team that thrives on crashing the glass, what are the rebounding margins?
We want a team that strings stops together by finishing each possession with a rebound (limiting 2nd chances) and offensively share it, take care of it, and relentlessly look to attack for scoring opportunities.
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One coach's journey is others opportunity to learn. A resource simply to grow the game. View all posts by Coach's Climb
How to Read a Basketball Box Score
Basketball box scores are fairly straightforward. Statistics for each participating player are presented in an easy-to-digest format. The key to comprehending the box score is understanding each statistical category and knowing its abbreviation.
MIN (Minutes)
In a complete box score, the minutes-played column can be right next to each player's name or it can be the last column to the right. The minutes calculation is rounded out to 30 seconds either way. So if a player played 23:12, that is recorded as 23. If a player played 22:48, that is recorded as 23. A player who plays less than 30 seconds gets a 0 or 0+. Players who do not play typically get a "DNP" designation.
FGM-A (Field Goals Made and Attempted)
This includes all shots made and legitimately attempted from the floor, both two-point shots and three-point shots.
A shot missed when a shooting foul occurs does not count as an attempt. Made shots include those awarded to the shooter because of defensive basket interference. Individual and team field goal percentages are derived from these totals.
3PA-M (Three-Point Shots Made and Attempted)
These numbers include three-point shots made and attempted, under the same guidelines as two-point shots. Individual and team three-point field goal percentages are derived from these totals. These makes and attempts are also included in the overall field goal made/attempts category. They are part of the overall field goal percentage.
FTM-A (Free Throws Made and Attempted)
These are all the shots made and attempted at the free throw line, either for personal fouls or technical fouls. Individual and team free throw percentages are derived from these totals.
OREB (Offensive Rebounds), DREB (Defensive Rebounds)
Players get a rebound for gaining control of a missed field goal or free throw attempt.
Offensive rebounds are those gained while on offense. These can be clean rebounds or controlled tips at the basket. Defensive rebounds are gathered or controlled at the defensive end. Some box scores will include a separate column for offensive rebounds, but not for defensive rebounds. In that case, subtract the offensive rebounds from the total rebounds to get the number of defensive rebounds.
REB (Rebounds)
These are the total rebounds credited at both ends of the court. In some cases "team rebounds" may be awarded when no one individual controls the missed shot.
AST (Assists)
Players earn an assist for making a pass that leads directly to a teammate's made basket. Merely being the last teammate to possess the ball before the shooter scores does not qualify you for an assist.
STL (Steals)
Players get a steal for taking away an opponent's dribble or intercepting a pass to give their team possession of the basketball.
BLK or BS (Blocked Shots)
Players get a blocked shot for clearly rejecting or deflecting a legitimate field goal attempt.
This counts as a block even if the defensive team does not recover the ball. NBA box scores include a stat for "BA" which stands for "block against" meaning how many of that player's shots were blocked.
TO (Turnover)
Players most commonly earn turnovers for losing the ball while dribbling, committing a ballhandling violation, throwing an errant pass or earning a charging foul while possessing the ball.
PF (Personal Fouls)
A personal foul is a physical foul committed on the court. On some levels, a technical foul -- usually assessed for unsportsmanlike conduct of some kind -- also counts as a personal foul for the offender. Technical fouls are usually delineated as a line item at the bottom of the box score. Flagrant fouls are severe personal fouls that draw extra punishment. These count as personal fouls, but are also registered as a line item under the box score.
+/- (Plus-Minus)
NBA box scores include individual plus-minus ratings, reflecting the game's point differential for each player's time on the court.
If your team outscores your opponent by 12 while you are playing, you get a plus-12. If your team is outscored by seven while you play, you get a minus-7.
The "hot hand" really works: scientists have confirmed an old basketball belief
Some people believe that a basketball player during a match can catch the courage, and his hand becomes “hot”: he scores one ball after another in a row. Scientists have found that this is not the case - for most players. However, some basketball players really know how to enter a special state and score with a “hot hand” more than statistical models predict.
American scientists have shown that the phenomenon of "hot hand" in basketball really exists. An article about this was published in the PLOS One magazine.
For a long time, there was a belief among basketball players and fans that a player can turn on the "hot hand" mode, which allows him to make many successful shots in a row. Many coaches, commentators and researchers doubted that this was possible, and the series of successes was explained by mere chance: in the end, the coin can also fall several times in a row on one side.
But the "hot hand" has become part of basketball culture, and in the computer game NBA Jam, a virtual ball lights up after several consecutive points scored by the same player. These discussions are renewed with each new impressive series, for example, in 2021 Stephen Curry from Golden State Warriors hit in 105 straight 3-point practice.
Konstantinos Pelecrinis of the University of Pittsburgh and his colleague set out to test this myth statistically to see if players can really become "hot". Many previous studies have focused on one type of shot—free throw, three-point shot, or special shot. However, in a real game, the rolls are rarely the same.
Therefore, the experts developed a statistical model that analyzes shots based on many factors: who shot, distance to the basket, type of shot, distance to the nearest defender, who was the nearest defender, whether the ball was received after the pass, and much more. Such an analysis became possible only thanks to the developed sports statistics in American basketball, scientists themselves would not have been able to watch such a number of matches.
This model can predict the success rate of any roll. If we compare the actual percentage of players hitting in a successful streak with the model's predictions for the same game situations, we can find out if there really is a "hot hand". For example, if in reality a player in the same situation will hit 55 percent of shots, although according to forecasts from the same situations he should score only 46 percent, then the phenomenon really exists.
Scientists analyzed the game of 153 basketball players who made at least 1000 shots in the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons. Throws after one, two, three and four hits in a row were considered. It turned out that if we consider all the players as a whole, then the chances of hitting the third throw after two hits are even 1.9percent lower than the model predicts - that is, the hand becomes not “hot”, but “cold”.
However, looking at the players individually, the picture changes and the hot hand phenomenon begins to show up in some people.
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The 30 players studied had statistically significant streaks in which the percentage of hits was significantly different from the predictions of the model. On average, these players saw their third throw increase by 2.71 percent, and by 4.42 and 5.8 percent on the fourth and fifth, respectively.
Researchers note that having a "hot hand" does not guarantee that a player will score from any position. For example, this phenomenon is often exhibited by players whose position does not involve long-range shots. Scientists have put forward a hypothesis that the “research and use” scheme can work in basketball, when the player first looks for the best ways and options for action, finds and applies them until he gets tired or the opponent adapts. For example, you can find a weak link in the defense - a less skilled defender - and attack in his zone.
“It is important to remember that the phenomenon we have discovered is not necessarily related to what fans call a “hot hand”. Maybe it's just about the ability of some players to look for opponents that are convenient for themselves and use them for their series of hits, ”the scientists write.
The authors of the paper do not expect that their paper will put an end to the discussions about the "hot hand", but they hope that their methodology will help new research on this problem. In addition, a closer analysis of the behavior of players on a successful series is likely to help coaches stimulate the ability to "hot hand" in their players.
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