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How to calculate true shooting percentage in basketball
Explaining True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
Bill Streicher – USA TODAY Sports
There’s a lot of misunderstanding over the true shooting percentage metric and I wanted to write a short article clearing up some common misconceptions.
The source of most of the confusion seems to be one of the more unique players in basketball, James Harden. Harden has a field goal percentage (FG%) of 43.6% this season, which is below the league-average of 45.8%. However, Harden also boasts a 61.8% TS%, which is considerably higher than the league-average TS% of 56.2%. How does this make sense? There must be something wrong with TS%, right? Harden is known for drawing a lot of shooting fouls, so a lot of fans claim that the formula for TS% must be “skewed towards free throws” or “weighs free throws too heavily.” This is certainly not the case.
First of all, here’s the formula for field goal percentage:
Pretty simple. The number of made field goals over the number of attempted field goals. The problem is that it is essentially useless. FG% entirely ignores the very important fact that all field goal attempts are not equally valuable.
Here’s an example to illustrate the problem with FG%:
Player A and Player B both attempted ten shots. Player A hit six of their ten shots, while Player B connected on just five shots. Player A had a higher FG% — surely they must have been a superior scoring option? No, they were not. Despite shooting a lower FG%, Player B scored three more points than Player A because they hit more three-pointers.
In summary, the problem with FG% is that it doesn’t take into account the fact that three-pointers are worth three points, while two-pointers are worth just two points. Simple. That’s an easy fix, though. Instead of simply calculating FGM divided by FGA for FG%, why not add a bit of extra juice for 3PM? That’s the basis behind effective field goal percentage (eFG%):
In this formula, a 3PM is weighed 1.5x more than a 2PM. That makes sense, because 2 * 1. 5 = 3, right? It’s a good stat. Player A had an eFG% of 60%, while Player B’s eFG% was 75%. That appears to match up with the fact that Player B shot at a more efficient rate once accounting for the value in their shot selection.
There’s one problem, though. eFG% is not an all-around metric of scoring efficiency — it measures shooting efficiency. There are three ways to score points in the NBA: two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws. eFG% only tackles the first two options. The free throw is the most valuable shot in basketball1 and drawing fouls to get to the line is an extremely important skill. Therefore, a measurement of scoring efficiency must incorporate free throws.
Here’s another way to look at eFG%: (PTS – FTM) / FGA. It’s the number of points obtained from FGM divided by the number of attempts. The resulting value is not on the same scale as eFG%, but the relationship is perfectly linear — they represent the same thing.
That formula could be thought of as ‘points per shot. ’ We essentially want a scoring metric that represents ‘points per shooting possession,’ including possessions in which a player attempts a shot that isn’t counted as a FGA because they were fouled. It would intuitively make sense to just multiply FTA by a coefficient of 0.50 to get the number of trips to the line because free throws are shot in pairs. However, we have to account for technical free throws, free throws after a missed three-pointer, and “and-one” plays. If you searched for the best approximate coefficient, you’d find that 0.44 is the sweet spot. It’s an approximation, but it’s a pretty good one.
Here’s what we got:
And that’s basically what TS% is. A measure of scoring efficiency based on the number of points scored over the number of possessions in which they attempted to score.
The actual TS% formula multiplies the denominator by 2 to put the number into a percentage scale, but it’s the same result on a different scale.
Free throws are not weighed too heavily. They’re weighed exactly as they should be.
Based on league averages this season, a two-pointer is worth 1.04 points per shot and a three-pointer is worth 1.07 points per shot. Meanwhile, players hit 77.1% of their free throws on average. Therefore, a shooting foul yielding two free throw attempts is worth 1.54 points per shot.
What is the true shooting percentage basketball statistic?
How to use the TS calculator?
How to calculate true shooting percentage?
Glossary of terms used in the TS calculator
Why is the true shooting percentage useful?
TS% values of professional basketball players
More resources on true shooting percentage and other basketball statistics
Whether you're a die-hard basketball fan or a professional basketball player, this TS calculator will prove to be an invaluable tool for you. If you've ever wondered how to calculate true shooting percentage's value, read this article to learn about this popular basketball statistic and use the true shooting calculator to see how it works in practice.
True shooting percentage is a statistic introduced by the Association for Professional Basketball Research Metrics, widely used both in professional and amateur basketball leagues. Often abbreviated to TS or TS%, this basketball statistic is excellent if you want to precisely assess a basketball players' skill. In particular, it measures a single player's performance at shooting the ball.
How to use the TS calculator?
To determine your own or your favorite player's TS% using this true shooting calculator, follow these simple steps:
Give the true shooting calculator the overall number of points scored by a player.
Input the player's FGA value,
Input the player's FTA value.
Based on the data provided, the TS calculator will return the player's TS%.
How to calculate true shooting percentage?
If you want to give calculating true shooting percentage a go on your own, use the following formulas:
TS% = Points / (2 * TSA)
TSA = FGA + (0.44 * FTA)
Where TSA is the True Shooting Attempts.
Let's go through an example of these calculations. Our hypothetical player will have:
1,295 points scored
across 850 Field Goal Attempts (FGA)
and 420 Free Throw Attempts (FTA)
First, we calculate the player's TSA value.
TSA = 850 + (0.44 * 420) = 850 + 184.8 = 1,034.8
Once we know the value of TSA, we can quickly figure out the TS%.
The only thing left to do is to convert the TS% value into a percent.
0.6257 = 62.57%
Now we know that if a player scored 1,295 points across 850 FDAs and 420 FTAs, their true shooting percentage i 62.57%.
Glossary of terms used in the TS calculator
Even though you already know how to calculate the true shooting percentage, you may still be wondering what all the abbreviations and values used in this calculator are. Here's a short glossary of the terms used in the true shooting calculator. We hope it clears any doubts:
FGA - Field Goal Attempts - a field goal is a basket scored on any shot or tap other than a free throw, worth two or three points depending on the distance it was attempted from the basket. Both 2-point field goal attempts and 3-point field goal attempts are taken into account while calculating the value of someones true shooting percentage.
FTA - Free Throw Attempts - a free throw is an unopposed attempt to score by shooting from behind the free throw line.
TSA - True Shooting Attempts - TSA is a basketball statistic measured by adding the number of FGAs to the number of FTAs, with the latter multiplied by 0.44.
Why is the true shooting percentage useful?
Sports statistics can be of great help for players who want to get better. Knowing where you are is the key to improvement, and thanks to the true shooting percentage, a basketball player can assess their skills in a very precise way. Other metrics that may be useful are the run rate calculator and the batting average calculator.
What is more, from the perspective of a fan, it's also good to know your favorite player's chances of winning. Whether you're into sport betting and want to make sure the odds are in your favor, or a casual fan who just wants to know some details about your team, the true shooting percentage statistic will allow you to estimate the skills of your idols as precisely as possible.
TS% values of professional basketball players
Perhaps the most famous basketball player in history, Michael Jordan, in the middle of a shot. According to Basketball Reference, his true shooting percentage equals 56.86%, and places 92nd on the list below.
If you're curious about the typical true shooting percentage of professional basketball players, take a look at this table of the 10 highest TS% values in the NBA (courtesy of Basketball Reference.)
Rank
Player
TS% value
Artis Gilmore
64.33%
DeAndre Jordan
63.67%
Cedric Maxwell
62.94%
Tyson Chandler
62.55%
Stephen Curry
62.36%
Carl-Anthony Towns
61. 92%
James Donaldson
61.77%
Adrian Dantley
61.66%
Reggie Miller
61.39%
Kevin Durant
61.27%
The lowest true shooting percentage in the NBA ranking belongs to Michael Cooper, who places 250 with a TS% of 54.42%.
While writing this article and constructing the TS calculator, we used several excellent resources you may want to check out if you're interested in the topic of basketball.
The official website of the Association for Professional Basketball Research Metrics (APRBmetrics)
Basketball Reference
NBA's Statistical Analysis Primer
Maria Kluziak
Points
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How to calculate the percentage of hits? – Wiki Reviews
Field goal percentage is used to measure how well a player or team shoots the ball during a game. To calculate field goal percentage, divide the number of shots fired by the total number of shot attempts .
Similarly, what is a good hit percentage? A higher field goal percentage means higher efficiency. Basketball A. FG% of. 500 (50%) or more is considered a good percentage, although this criterion does not apply equally to all positions. Guards generally have less FG% than forwards and centers.
How to calculate the percentage of goals scored? Divide your progress towards your goal by your goal . In the first example, divide 9 by 30 and get 0.3. In the second example, divide $440 by $1,000 to get 0.44. Multiply the result by 100 to convert it to a percentage.
What is the percentage of shots in basketball? In basketball, true shooting percentage is 9.0003 Extended statistic that measures a player's efficiency in throwing the ball . It is designed to provide a more accurate calculation of a player's shots than field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and three-point field goal percentage taken individually.
Second Why is .44 in true shooting percentage? 44 was used to approximate the number of possessions when using the points statistics.
What is LeBron James' real shooting percentage?
LeBron James has a true career shooting percentage of 58.7.
Name
GP
FG%
LeBron James
1340
9000 9000 9000 9000 9000
then who has the highest percentage of accurate hits? Rudy Gobert has the best percentage of true shooting in his career - 66.7%.
Who has the highest TS%? NBA/ABA
9
How old is KD?
At 33 years old Durant's 28.4 points per game is his best since the 2013-14 season.
What is Michael Jordan's real hit percentage? Michael Jordan had a career real-life shooting percentage of 56.9.
Name
GP
FG%
Michael Jordan
1072
9000 49. 7
How is true shooting calculated?
TS% - percentage of true shooting; formula PTS/(2*TSA) . True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting effectiveness that takes into account field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws. TSA - Real Shooting Attempts; formula FGA+3*FTA.
What is the league's average hit percentage? The average percentage of accurate hits in the league is 56.1% .
How is the NBA net ranking calculated?
An NBA team's net rating is simply the number of points per 100 possessions they have (called the offensive rating) minus the number of possession points their opponents have scored (called the defensive rating).
Does KD have a child?
Brooklyn Nets megastar Kevin Durant remains one of the most prominent single athletes. He has never been married and has no children .
Who is the wife of KDS? Kevin Durant's Wife: Commitment Monica Wright + Dating history | Fanbuzz.
How old is Steph Curry? After another historic night for Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has praised his All-Star defenseman for not slowing down. 33 years old .
How many steals does LeBron have?
NBA / ABA
Rank
Player
STL
10
9003
Why Lebron the goat?
He is a better passer and rebounder than Jordan because he averages more passes and more rebounds than Jordan. LeBron is also a far more effective scorer than Jordan. He has a higher field goal percentage as well as a higher 2 and 3 point percentage. He is also a more versatile defender.
What is the rate of use? measure of the amount of product consumed by the user in a given period
What is the average 3-point percentage in the NBA? The average indicators of the NBA league - for the game
The league's three-point shot rate (percentage of all field goals made from behind the arc) has increased in each of the last 3 seasons, rising from 10% on 22.2/2010 to 39.2% last season .
What is the average true shot in the NBA? 2020 league average hit percentage
LEAGUE
SEASON 9How to read basketball statistics
How to read the bill in the box
MIN = minutes.
FGM = Field goals made.
FGA = Field goal attempts.
FG% = field goal percentage.
3RM = 3 points done.
3PA = 3 pointer attempt.
3P% = 3 percent interest.
FTM = Free throws made.
What is FP in NBA statistics?
NBA Fantasy Points per Minute .
How do NBA statistics work? Sometimes a player's stats of divided by minutes played and multiplied by 48 minutes is (if he had played the entire game), denoted * for 48 minutes. gold *48M. … There is also a 5x5 where the player records at least 5 in each of the 5 stats.
The NBA is an empire of trendy numbers. Explaining how to use advanced statistics - openers - Blogs
Historically, sports statistics have been accepted as such factual evidence. In endless disputes and ratings saturated with subjective perception, it is cold numbers that are an indestructible foundation that is definitely not biased. The statistics take into account every possession of every match. Statistics don't hurt anyone.
The numbers certainly give accurate answers. Just not all questions. You need to put them in the right context in order to come to adequate conclusions. You need to understand what statistics take into account, and what can be missed.
One of the main components of working with statistics is, in fact, the choice of the considered metrics. Statistics are evolving and new indicators are emerging. And the game is changing, and some data is no longer as useful as it used to be.
So what statistics are relevant today? What metrics have already become obsolete? Which of the new indicators is the most useful? Let's figure it out.
Team statistics
It is more logical to start with a few banal, but important and fundamental things. Such as attacking or defensive rating and 4 factors.
Points per 100 possessions
Back in the day, teams' defense and attack were measured by points scored or conceded per match. Today, everything is a little more accurate. Instead of "per match" indicators are used "per 100 possessions", which are called attacking and defensive ratings . This allows you to make an allowance for the pace and not talk about the fact that any fast team cannot defend, but attack smartly.
Here's a simple example: The Bucks are now by far the best defense in the NBA, only conceding 101.6 points per 100 possessions. But in terms of points missed per game, Milwaukee is only fifth in the NBA. Why? Because they play fast enough, and the opponent simply has more attacks per match (as well as the "deer" themselves). But on any given defense, the Bucks have fewer passes than any other NBA team, so a defensive rating is clearly a more useful tool here.
Same with attacking rating, as an alternative to match points. These two indicators most simply and accurately describe the level of the team on both sides.
The difference between a team's attacking and defensive rating is called "no-rating", in fact, this is the difference in the score or +/-, but in terms of 100 possessions. This metric is quite indicative and allows you to assess the strength of the team almost better than the win-loss ratio of .
The idea is something like this: if you have a lot of wins, but not the highest net rating, then most likely you suffered several big defeats, could not confidently beat weak teams and took some tight matches with a close ending, which always implies a factor chance. Naturally, this should impose a certain filter on the perception of the percentage of matches won.
Of course, Denver will tell everyone that he just plays well in the decisive minutes and rightfully wins ahead of Utah, Dallas and Houston, even though they have a higher net-rating. Only for some reason, Utah has a higher percentage of wins in games whose outcome is decided in the last minutes.
We can say that this indicator underestimates the importance of hard-fought endings and overestimates the importance of crushing matches. And we can say that it allows you to make an allowance for luck. Not always and not for everyone, “no rating” will be more objective than a simple number of wins, but when comparing teams with a similar number of wins and losses, a noticeable difference in “no rating” is definitely important.
4 factors
Attack and defense ratings are such generalized indicators that demonstrate the overall strength of the team in each half of the court. For more detail, indicators of the so-called 4 factors are very useful.
So-called, because, in fact, there are 8 of them: four in attack and four in defense. This includes effective hitting percentage, rebounding percentage, turnover percentage, and free throw frequency. Together, these indicators give a fairly complete picture of the team's game.
Effective field percentage (eFG%) measures the accuracy of shots. Previously, the base percentage from the field (FG%) was used - the number of hits from the number of shots. But with the growth in the number of three-pointers, this metric is hopelessly outdated. She mixes shots from behind the arc and two-pointers, which seriously hits teams that rely on three-pointers. The bottom line is that “three-pointers” are not sold so often, but they cost one and a half times more, and FG% only takes into account accuracy. eFG%, in turn, also adjusts for the value of three-pointers . In fact, an eFG% of 50 means the team scores 1 point per shot.
So, Houston is 22nd in field shooting and 6th in eFG% because almost half of their shots are 3-point shots. And, given that they have the second offense in the NBA, the advanced figure is clearly closer to the truth. eFG% allows you to noticeably more adequately assess the effectiveness of the throws of the team and the opponent.
The percentage of losses and the percentage of rebounds shows who actually had more of these shots. If you rarely lose the ball and often rebound on offense, then you are more likely to hit the ring. This can help out even with not the highest throw efficiency. Again, it is in percentage terms that such data is more useful. They allow you to count not the number of losses per match, but the number of losses per 100 possessions. Not the number of rebounds in the game, but the percentage of available rebounds. This makes more sense.
For example, Utah and Miami are near the middle of the table in losses per match. But their percentage of losses is at the level of 6-7 places in the League from the end. That's because they play very slowly and they just have fewer possessions per game, which means they're less likely to lose the ball. But in each individual attack, the chances of making a loss are quite high.
The last component of the 4 factors is the FTA rate. This is the number of shots from the line for 1 shot from the field. And this indicator kind of closes the topic. Because if the team didn't lose the ball, it doesn't mean that it definitely threw a field goal, it may have earned free kicks. This must be taken into account. But theoretically, one could remove this factor from the list by replacing eFG% with TS%. True shooting is another combined accuracy measure that takes into account the value of shots, and it includes not only two-pointers and three-pointers, but also free throws . Then the throws from the line will be taken into account. But, of course, the frequency of free throws gives a more complete picture of the game.
In general, 4 factors describe the match quite fully. As a rule, looking at them, you can determine who won, although there is no mention of points in these statistics. And, if you look at the seasonal performance of the team in 4 factors, you can quickly find out what exactly the indicators of the attacking and defensive ratings are made up of.
Distribution of throws
Now in Moscow living rooms there is only talk about the effectiveness of throws. Many are already simply sick of this efficiency, because "how much can you throw your threes." As if if the player takes two steps forward and scores one point less, the game will immediately become still beautiful. As if, if the player opens on the middle, and not in the corner, it will become easier for his partners to go into the passages everyone loves.
In fact, the idea of efficiency is much broader. It was never "throw only three-pointers." It was always "throw lay-ups, three-pointers (preferably from the corner) and try to get free throws. " And it's just a matter of mathematics. Because some attempts are more useful than others. On average, a 3-pointer from the corner earns more points per shot than a 3-pointer under 45. A lay-up promises more points per shot than a floater. A three-pointer in the forehead brings more points than a long-range average. A pair of free throws is worth more points than any field goal other than a dunk (but if you count all shots from under the basket, then their implementation is lower than free throws).
That's why the teams try to reach big points in the attack and defend in such a way as not to give the opponent profitable shots. And this gives a new look at the throw card - makes it a kind of measure of success. Because the accents are now so pronounced that the ability to get the right throws is already a victory. A high number of attempts from good positions means that you are generating opportunities for correct shots, despite the fact that any opponent knows that these are the ones to try to avoid.
Of course, the set of players does not always allow you to get the most out of the situation. Chicago is the first in the NBA in shooting from under the basket, but the last in the accuracy of these attempts. “Golden State” rarely allows the opponent to throw from under the basket, but misses everything from there. Minnesota shoots a lot of three-pointers, but rarely hits them (perhaps why they are given these shots so easily). And last year's Spurs, on the contrary, constantly threw with an average, but they did it so accurately that a mathematically incorrect throw turned out to be quite effective (although it turned out to be impossible to throw with such a percentage two years in a row).
Performers are important. But they will not turn the math upside down, they can just correct it a little. The worst team in shooting from under the basket still shoots more than 62% from there, that is, 1.24 points per shot. The worst team at 3-pointers from the corner hit 33.9% of their attempts from there, which is more than 1. 01 points per shot. No one in the NBA shoots above 48 percent (0.96 points per shot) from any medium range.
Any team will shoot more effectively by coming up with the right shots. And by removing advantageous shots from your opponent, you improve your defense.
Therefore, the distribution of shots by distance and accuracy in each of the categories is one of the tools for evaluating a team in both halves. In principle, this can be used as a kind of “adjustment for luck”. If a team takes disadvantageous throws, then it should not have too high a conversion. If a team gives the opponent good shots, and he misses them, sooner or later it will end.
Quite conveniently, distance throws are presented here in the team shooting/opponent shooting section (own and opponent). There are share of shots, and implementation, and separate columns for three-pointers from the corner. The data can be rewound back to the year 2000 if it is interesting to see how teams threw before, and how they throw now.
Theoretically, from all this abundance of team indicators, one can even form a certain game pattern for oneself.
For example, a defensive rating would show that the Jazz and Bulls have about the same level of defense. Four factors will make it clear that "Utah" almost does not force losses, and "Chicago" - on the contrary, very much succeeded in this. The throw card will show that "Utah" does not let anyone near its ring - the opponents almost do not attack from close range, and against the "bulls" they only throw them on the way.
As a result, it is logical to assume that Gobert sits under the ring, does not meet the opponent's ball handler, and therefore does not force him to make mistakes. From here, Utah's opponents have few losses. But with such a defense, Gobert can completely block the “paint”, which is what the throw card shows. With the "bulls" the opposite is true - high pressure on the ball forces the opponent's mistakes, but in case of failure, they open both a dash to the ring and three from the corner.
But this is theoretical, because I did everything the other way around, first I looked at the games, and only then - the statistics.
What to get stuck in quarantine
This is not exactly team statistics, but it is not individual either. In general, NBA.com now has two very interesting tools for assessing the success of certain combinations of players.
For example, the impact section allows you to understand how certain players affect each other and partners. For example, you can see how Harden and Westbrook interact. Are the Rockets' no-ranking better when they're both on the floor, or when Harden plays without Westbrook? Does Russ shoot more accurately when Harden is on the floor? Does the defense get better with both of them on the bench? Does Rivers shoot more accurately playing only Harden or only playing Westbrook? Everything has already been calculated.
This is quite an important thing when evaluating team leaders. Can they play without each other? Do they make each other better? And, as a result, is it worth it to breed them by the minute?
You can also look at the influence of players from different teams in matches with each other, but here, for obvious reasons, the sample does not allow drawing conclusions (at least in the regular season). If we look at the opposition of the players, then the statistics on match-ups are more indicative. The metric allows you to see both who usually defends against whom, and how successful different players are in such matchups. For example, who LeBron attacks through most often or against whom he throws the worst. The sample is again small, but describes the extreme cases accurately. If someone can't defend against LeBron it shows immediately, if someone does a really good job it shows.
The second interesting section is lineups. All the top five in the NBA on one page. The visualization is very convenient, you can immediately see which combinations played a lot, and which ones were the most successful.
Combinations can be sorted not only by "no-rating", but also by accuracy, the effectiveness of the opponent's shots and the percentage of shots scored in the early attack. Naturally, it is not necessary to be tied specifically to the fives - you can look at combinations of 2, 3 or 4 players.
Player statistics
Individual data is mainly compiled from three statistical sections. The first is the load, the amount of work in the attack. The second is the efficiency of this work. The third - at least something about protection.
Throws
Let's start with the engagement percentage (USG%). The metric takes into account productive attacking actions - shots, free throws and losses. USG% is the proportion of possessions in which the player made such an action during the time he was on the court (possessions spent on the bench are not counted as idle).
Basically, this reflects the shooting load, allowing you not to collect free kicks, field goals and losses separately in the corners. At the moment, the NBA leader in this indicator is Giannis, he has an engagement percentage of more than 37. That is, when he is on the floor, 37% of the Bucks' possessions end with an attack by the Greek. Which is not surprising, given his 20 field goals and 10 free throws in 30 minutes on the floor. This is the seventh most in history, above only Bryant, Jordan, Harden, Iverson and Westbrook (twice). At the same time, in terms of efficiency, only Harden is next to Giannis, the rest are noticeably lower.
As for efficiency in general, it is quite well described by the same eFG% or TS%. They make allowance for the value of the rolls and bring all the indicators together. But there are important details to consider.
Was the throw after the pass or not?
Other things being equal, it is easier to get from the transfer. It would seem that these are the problems of those who throw from the dribble, but these players are more independent, because they themselves bring themselves to the throw. They are more difficult to neutralize. But among the attacking players after the transfer, there is a certain line between really dependent players and just players of this specific type. For example, Redick shoots after a pass, but sort of goes to the throw himself. It opens so that any log can give it a pass. He doesn't need a point guard, just an average NBA player. On the other hand, it takes a certain amount of talent to flirt with some pick-and-roll centers - the point guard must pull two on the screen in order to free his big one. For different types of players, the degree of dependence is different, as is the adjustment for the fact that they attack after the transfer. Therefore, the next question is:
In which attack were points scored?
NBA.com now has a division into types of combinations. By opening a specific sub-type of attack, you can see how often the player uses it and how many points he scores for such possession.
So, different types of holdings have different efficiency. If the performer is qualified, then throws from under the basket after a partner's discount are worth more than 1.3 points per possession. Throws from top rollmen are worth more than 1.2 points per attempt. Approximately the same amount is given by "spot-up attempts" - throws after discounts, when the shooter did not open on the screen to receive, but simply remained open due to the fact that the opponent went somewhere to help. This is dependent throws. They are easy to hit because your partner creates them for you.
Of course, it should be noted that, for example, a competent type rollman attracts so much attention to himself that it facilitates the work of the ball handler and gives almost an inverse relationship. But these are particulars from the red book, they are rare in the wild, and even successful rollmen are, for the most part, dependent and easily replaced players.
But screen openings, pick-and-rolls, isolations and post-ups are possessions created by the thrower himself. They require more aggressive movements, it is already more difficult to maintain balance and withstand the mechanics of the throw, it is more difficult to hit. Hence the drawdown in terms of efficiency in the region of 1.1 points per possession from the best representatives of each of the types.
Was the throw in position or early attack?
Milwaukee is the most effective field goal shooter this season with an eFG% of 55.3. The worst team in terms of accuracy on early offense is the Clippers, who hit with an eFG% of 56.0. That is, the worst transition in the NBA is more productive than the best offense in the league. So, naturally, it is easier for players to hit in early attacks, and those who have a high share of shots in transition are initially in a winning position. And it's one thing if you're Giannis or Simmons, the player who actually creates these early offensive opportunities. It's another matter if you're just defending at the top and when intercepted, you find yourself closest to someone else's ring. You are a good fellow for running fast, but that's all.
And the effectiveness of the players must be run through such filters. Because the most accurate basketball players will always be centers who shoot 3 times per game, and all three of their shots are dunks after the transfer of a partner. But this does not mean that they are the most effective scorers. They just have the easiest job.
Passes
The second component of the attacking load is passes. It seems logical to use the percentage of assists (AST%) . The indicator takes into account the share of partners' hits from the player's pass from the total number of partners' hits. That is, if Valera has AST% 20, and the guys who play with him on the team hit 10 times, then Valera has 2 assists. But the trick is that possessions in which the player threw himself do not count at all. Therefore, AST% is slightly higher for stars with a large throwing load, the lion's share of those shots for which they did not give a transmission are their own.
On the one hand, the assist percentage approach is logical. Because players with a high shooting load simply have fewer opportunities to give an assist - there are fewer possessions in which they pass. And it seems to be more correct to count exactly how many assists from the theoretically available ones the player has given, and he cannot give an assist to himself.
On the other hand, if you are constantly throwing, then the possessions that your partners hit are stupidly smaller, and it is easier to have a high share of passes there. So part of the lack of focus on the pass will make your percentage of assists higher, which does not sound very logical. In general, the metric is ambiguous and favors players who dominate the ball.
If you need to calculate a purely passing load, then it is more appropriate to take "effective passes per 100 possessions." In essence, this is the percentage of team attacks that ended with a pass from a player. Adding this to the percentage of engagement, you can roughly estimate the total load in the attack. Then a large throwing load will be taken into account, and players who throw rarely will not be pinched.
But the engagement percentage takes into account not only hits, but also all throws, and even losses. To add to it exclusively assists is not logical.
Potential assists will come to the rescue - passes that led not to a hit, but to a throw (naturally, including hits) .
This is especially handy if you're Trae Young, playing with hand-assers who can't hit anything. In assists per 100 possessions, you will be inferior to Doncic or Rubio, but you will be higher in chances created. And this is important, because point guards, who play with weak finishers, are initially in losing positions, and then they are pulled up.
On the other hand, this metric plays into the hands of guys who are just so bad at passing that it's impossible to shoot properly from their pass. Westbrook has more potential assists than Harden, and James has more actual assists. And any Oklahoma fan who has seen how a real point guard should play this season knows what it is.
In any case, in order to somehow use this metric, you need to wait for NBA.com to allow you to see data in terms of 100 possessions, and not “per game”.
As for the effectiveness of transmissions, it is considered by different methods, but not all very well.
Ancient as the world option - ratio of passes to losses . But, like everything ancient, this metric is rather raw. Such statistics will always favor players who aggravate little for themselves and are aimed precisely at the draw. Because surprise is surprise, the ball can be lost not only when trying to pass. Rubio has a better pass-to-loss ratio than LeBron, not because he's a better passer, but because LeBron does a lot of other things besides passing, and that's where you can lose the ball.
Today there are still not too perfect, but already more interesting methods. For example, thanks to tracking, you can find out what percentage of a player's passes were successful (AST to PASS%). Here, of course, you need to compare only those who at least sometimes pass. But, in general, the tool is working and shows how aggressively the player sharpens.
More complete data available (AST to PASS% adjusted) . This takes into account the percentage of passes that led not only to a hit, but also to free throws or an assist (that is, hockey assists are counted). When it comes to players with a high overall playload, this is probably the most logical tool for evaluating passing performance. No, not because Booker and Young are higher than LeBron in this indicator. It's just that this metric shows what part of the programs are really aggravating.
But that number doesn't really honor 3-point passes. The chance that a discount on a long shot will be effective is initially lower, simply because of the conversion percentage, so the percentage of passes that turn into assists will be lower. But a three-pointer is more expensive. From this point of view, it is more logical to use the points scored after the player's passes. But this, in turn, has nothing to do with efficiency, because it does not take into account the proportion of successful transfers from the total amount given. This is not to mention the fact that on the official website of the NBA, again, this data is available only in the “per match” format, which is unfortunate. For, as already mentioned, such indicators do not allow accurate comparison of basketball players who receive different playing time and play at different paces.
In general, the transmission data has become more interesting, but there are still no clear answers.
Barriers
Well, for the "big" ones, involvement in the attack is decently reflected by screen assists. The screens that lead directly to a scoring shot show how often attacks actually go through those screens. Rudy Gobert is a recognized champion in this regard, he puts on 7 screen assists per match.
True, there are questions related to how much it is in the player setting the screens.
First, Adams is doing 5 screen assists per match this season, down from 3.4 the year before. You think it's Westbrook? If you rewind even further, there will again be 5 screens resulting in an average per game. And a year before that - again about 3.5. This indicator strongly depends on the game of the team. If they do pick-and-rolls that lead directly to the shot, then you will have a lot of effective screens. If not, then alas. Gobert tops screen assists not because he's a great screener, but because Utah plays through his screen every attack. How could it be otherwise, because if Rudy does not put up a barrier, then in attack it is just a useless piece of wood under the ring.
Secondly, the ability to make a screen is highly dependent on the player using the screen. For example, whoever Lillard is currently playing with, that “big” screen assist stat will be fine. Not only because Dame hits his pick-and-rolls over and over again, but because he does it so damn well.
In general, as an indicator of the quality of the screens, this metric is not very good. But as an indicator of the integration of the "big" into the attack - quite .
Protection
For a long time there were no sensible defensive statistics , and nothing has changed since then . Fans had to get by with blocked shots and interceptions, which were more bright manifestations than a reflection of real contribution.
But over time it got a little better, additional indicators appeared that are already more useful. And all the equally meaningless data appeared.
For example, attempts to rethink block shots and interceptions with a fashionable percentage of blocks or counting deflections (ball touches in defense) were initially doomed . Because they think the same thing just a little differently. And the problem with block shots and interceptions was not in the scoring model, but in their nature. These are rare tangible manifestations of defense, but they are not the goal, the mission of defense is to force a bad roll. A block shot or an interception is more of a random consequence of a good defense. Well, Minnesota is in the top 10 this season in both steals and blocks per 100 possessions. I think it's not worth reminding where their protection is.
At the same time, it should be noted that good defensive players often ended up in the top in steals or deflections. It's just that there were also weak defensive players who took risks in an attempt to catch the interception. And their failures were not taken into account by statistics, but their successes were very much so. It's the same with players who cheat block shots by getting knocked out on every swing.
But with the development of tracking, it became possible to track the "protective percentage of the game" . And it became a real revolution, because now it was possible to clearly track which player through a certain distance hit the worst. What's more, this percentage was compared to the attacking player's average hitting percentage, so you can see how much the defender reduces the opponent's effectiveness.
So, the protective percentage under the ring showed who was the best rim protector. Today - Brook Lopez (5+ shots, 30+ matches).
And everyone was so happy, but this theme only really works for centers .
Because the centers protect the hoop from everyone. The center is almost impossible to hide in defense. And the perimeter players defend in their position. Therefore, they try to hide weak defensive players on someone harmless, and this allows these weakest defensive players to have a good defensive percentage. It's like telling what a historically tough guard Harden is in the post, like he's defending there against Embiid or other really post-up "big guys" that aren't that many in the NBA today. No, it's just that Harden is exchanged for the “fourth”, and then this “fourth”, who has not played with his back for two years, decides that it is his duty to trample Harden. James really does this.
By the way, you could look at the defensive types of possessions and evaluate the number of points a player misses in a given possession. But pick and roll defense is the work of at least two people. Only protection against isolations and post-ups can really be assessed. And not only is this far from the entire defense, but there is not a single player in the league who has played at least 30 matches and defends in aizo or post-up at least 2 times per match.
In general, it is quite difficult to estimate the individual level of protection statistically, even if we are talking about a banal one-on-one game.
Another sort of defensive indicator is defensive rebounding. And I can't understand why anyone else cares about this indicator . Well, yes, if the ball is tossed, it will fall, and you caught it, great job. What is the value of the fact that it was you who caught the ball, and not your teammate? How many of your rebounds were actually snatched from the opponent and had any value? Today, defensive rebounds are like an attacking possession in which you didn’t allow a loss – that’s how it should be, there’s no need to count them.
Offensive rebounds look a bit more interesting, but they usually depend on the style of play and coaching attitudes. The pick-and-roll "big" chasing the ballhandler will often clean up after him. If the defensive center of the opponent is traded for the perimeter, then the attacking center has a height advantage in the fight for rebounding. And if you play for Popovich, then you can’t pick up rebounds in the attack - you need to immediately run to the defense. But there is at least something, focus on the rebound, instincts, hustle. There is nothing in defensive rebounding, as in individual metrics. Drummond collects 40 of them per match, no one cares.
But it got better over time. Accountants began to record not only the rebounds themselves, but also box-outs, now you can find out how many of the player's rebounds were torn out in the fight. Or to see that Drummond, who collected 10 rebounds on defense only last season, had no effect on Detroit’s team defensive rebounding, and Vucevic this season with 8. 5 rebounds on his shield, but with elite boxing numbers. strikeouts and rebounds with resistance - turns the work of "Orlando" on the shield.
Of course, defensive rebounding remains a relatively team topic because it is influenced by a lot of things. For example, a player can simply immediately run to the attack, forcing the opponent not to rebound, but to return to defense. The fact that the little one did not exchange on the perimeter, but worked on his feet and allowed the center to return under the ring to fight for rebounds, also has some value. But now there are more factors to know the real impact of a player on rebounding. And, in fact, the number of rebounds themselves is not important here at all.
Finally, one could evaluate a player's defense by looking at the defensive rating, but this never works because it depends heavily on the combinations the player comes out with. The very idea of assessing the individual level is lost.
In general, only the “big ones” have decent defensive statistics today, with their “paint” defense and influence on rebounds .
Something to get stuck in quarantine
There has always been a burning desire in the NBA to create some one indicator that would unequivocally explain who is the best player in the world. Previously, these were PER and WinShares - indicators that significantly overestimated the centers. Although MVP is still usually won by the person with the highest PER, John Hollinger's player performance rating.
Then more advanced and just other things appeared: BPM, VORP, RPV, RPM, PIE and I made up one of these abbreviations.
Every time it's something new, and every time there are players who can hack the formula, like the centers once hacked PER (seriously, Whiteside is the 10th NBA player by this metric, John Collins is 13th, Mitchell Robinson - 14th, Wood - 16th, Harrell, Valanchunas and Drummond - close the twenty). Each new indicator has its weak point, because of which the formula overestimates someone. And, if the glitches of this metric are shoved into the top of someone superfluous, then how can you be sure that it adequately placed the non-superfluous in order?
In general, finding the perfect formula is rather a utopia.