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How to read basketball statistics


Basketball Statistics Definitions

Here are some explanations of various abbreviations and statistics that we track in our iPad/iPhone stats app...

  • 2Pt the number of 2 point shots made
  • 2PtA the number of 2 point shot attempts
  • 2Pt% the percentage of 2 point shots made, 2Pt% = (2Pt / 2PtA) x 100
  • 3Pt the number of 3 point shots made
  • 3PtA the number of 3 point shot attempts
  • 3Pt% the percentage of 3 point shots made, 3Pt% = (3Pt / 3PtA) x 100
  • FG the total number of field goals made, FG = 2Pt + 3Pt
  • FGA the total number of field goals attempted, FGA = 2PtA + 3PtA
  • FG% the percentage of 3 point shot made, FG% = (FG / FGA) x 100
  • EFG% the Effective Field Goal percentage gives more credit to made 3 point field goals since they yield 1.5 times the scoring of a 2 point field goal, EFG% = (2Pt + 1. 5 x 3Pt) / FGA
  • FT the number of free throws made
  • FTA the number of free throw attempts
  • FT% the percentage of free throws made, FT% = (FT / FTA) x 100
  • Pts the total number of points scored by field goals and free throws, Pts = 2 x 2Pt + 3 x 3Pt + FT
  • Layup the number of layups made. This is determined by tapping one of the layup buttons on the Track Stats screen after a 2 point basket has been made.
  • LayupA the number of layups attempted. This is determined by tapping one of the layup buttons on the Track Stats screen after a 2 point basket has been missed.
  • Layup% the percentage of layups made, Layup% = (Layup / LayupA) x 100
  • Paint Pt the number of points scored in the free throw lane (the paint)
  • PaintA the number of shot attempts taken from within the free throw lane (the paint)
  • TO Pts the number of points scored immediately after a turnover. This is determined by the user first selecting a turnover. Then if the next statistical event is a made basket of any type by the opposing team turnover points are recorded.
  • OReb the number of offensive rebounds
  • DReb - the number of defensive rebounds
  • Reb the total number of rebounds, Total Reb = Off Reb + Def Reb
  • Ast the number of assists
  • TO the number of turnovers
  • Force TO the number of turnovers that are forced by the defensive player or team
  • Dflc the number of deflections by a defensive player or team
  • Dflc Vic the number of times that an offensive player or team has a pass deflected. You must turn on Ask for Deflection Victim in Team Game Rules under Setup to track this statistic.
  • Stl the number of steals by a defensive player or team
  • Blk the number of blocks by a defensive player or team
  • Blk Vic the number of times that an offensive player or team has a shot blocked. You must turn on Ask for Block Victim in Team Game Rules under Setup to track this statistic.
  • Chrg the number of time a defensive player or team takes a charge
  • Recov the total number of steals, blocks and charges taken by a player or team, Recov = Stl + Blk + Chrg
  • Foul the number of personal fouls committed
  • Fouled the number of times a player is fouled. You must turn on Ask for Foul Victim in Team Game Rules under Setup to track this statistic.
  • Force Rush the number of times a defensive player forces an offensive player to rush his shot
  • Force Jmp the number of times a defensive player forces a jump ball. This is recorded whenever the Jump Ball button is tapped on the Track Stats screen.
  • Jmp Victim the number of times an offensive player is forced into a jump ball. You must turn on Ask for Jump Ball Victim in Team Game Rules under Setup to track this statistic.
  • Minutes the total number of minutes a player is in the game. To track this accurately you must make substitutions at the correct clock time.
  • VPS the Danny Miles Value Point System is a player ranking system developed by Coach Danny Miles of Oregon Tech, VPS = (Pts + Reb + 2 x Ast + 2 x Recov) / (2 x Field Goals Missed + Free Throws Missed + 2 x Fouls + 2 x TO)
  • +/- the plus/minus statistic is a measure of the point differential when players are in and out of a game. It is calculated by taking the difference in the score when the player enters the game and subtracting it from the score when the player exits the game. These differences are added up over the entire game to give the score. Thus, it is a measure of the impact a player has on the score of the game when he is in the game without measuring any specific statistic.
  • Effic a measure of a player's efficiency, Effic = Pts + Rebs + Ast + Stl + Blk (TO + FG Misses + FT Misses)
  • Bench Pt the number of points scored by the non-starters
  • Def Stop the number of possessions a team prevents the offense from scoring any points, Def Stops = DReb + Opponents TO
  • Pt/Possess the average number of points scored per possession
  • OReb% the percentage of available rebounds the offensive team gets, OReb% = OReb / (OReb + Opponents DReb)
  • DReb% the percentage of available rebounds the defensive team gets, DReb% = DReb / (DReb + Opponents OReb)

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How do you read an NBA box score? – Basketball Noise

Sometimes when you’re watching an NBA game, and one player has had a dominant game, you’ll hear the commentator use the phrase “stat-sheet stuffer” or a similar variation of it. If you have ever wondered why commentators say that, you’ll first need to understand what a box score is. An NBA box score, also known as a stat sheet, records some major stats of the teams and/or players from a game.

How do you read an NBA box score? To read a player’s stats from a game, first locate the player’s name within the rows in the left-most column. Then to find a particular stat for the player, locate the stat on the top row: the player’s stat for that game will be where the name row intersects with the stat column. For example, if the player is in row 6, and the stat is in the fourth column (D), the player’s stat will be located in D6.

2022 NBA Finals Game 6 Box Score from Basketball Reference

What is an NBA box score?

The NBA box score is a tracking tool to record statistics from games, and is used to track individual player performances as well as overall team performances. The box score was first used for baseball, as far back as 1859, and has since been used in many professional leagues, including the NBA. The official NBA box score gives some information on the player alongside their stats. There are different kinds of box scores as well: player logs, game logs, team logs, season logs, etc., depending on the information needed.

What different statistics does an NBA box score track?

An NBA box score will have several categories of stats. Let’s break down what a game box score will look like, using the box score for the Dallas Mavericks in their March 13th, 2022 match-up against the Boston Celtics as an example. The left-most column features the players on the Mavericks roster, separated into the 5 starters for that game and the remaining players on the bench. Some players are listed as “DNP – Coach’s Decision”, referring to the fact that they did not register on the box score due to not being put in the game by the coach (rather than not playing due to injury or suspension).

The following stat categories appear on the box score, from left to right: minutes played (MIN), field goals (FG), 3-point shots (3PT), free throws (FT), offensive rebounds (OREB), defensive rebounds (DREB), total rebounds (REB), assists (AST), steals (STL), blocks (BLK), turnovers (TO), personal fouls (PF), plus/minus (+/-), and points scored (PTS).

The game box score also shows stats for the team at the bottom two rows. In the second-last row are the total stats for the team; the only two states that don’t have totals are minutes (since there are a total of 48 minutes in regulation) and plus/minus (an individual stat). The final row also shows team shooting percentages for field goals, 3-point shots, and free throws.

At the start of the 1996/1997 season, the NBA began adding advanced stats to the box score. These advanced stats include offensive rating (OFFRTG), defensive rating (DEFRTG), true shooting percentage (TS%), assist to turnover ratio (AST/TO).

What is the +/- statistic on the NBA box score?

At first glance, the plus-minus stat (+/-) on the box score may be confusing to some. The other stats are quite easy to track compared to the plus-minus stat. Simply put, the plus-minus stat shows the net points of a team when a certain player was on the court. This stat is calculated as such:

Plus-minus value of a player = [points scored by team when a player was on the court] – [points scored against team when a player was on the court]

As an example, refer to the box score for the Dallas Mavericks’ matchup against the Boston Celtics. The highest +/- belongs to Spencer Dinwiddie, at +13. This means that when Dinwiddie was on the court, the Mavericks scored 13 more points than they allowed. The lowest +/- belongs to Josh Green, at -10: the Mavericks allowed 10 more points than they scored with Green on the floor.

The plus-minus value is an interesting stat that shows the impact a player has on the court, on both the defensive and offensive ends. Often, presence itself doesn’t translate to statistics, but the plus-minus value paints a better picture: for example, a good defender may not have lots of blocks or steals, but has a strong positive +/- value. While the plus-minus value is prone to inaccuracy, it is a great start to pair with other traditional stats.

What uses are there for an NBA box score?

Looking at the box score can provide insights to a team and their players. The different categories of stats adds more dimensions to conclusions that can be drawn. Let’s take a look at the Mavericks box score: Dorian Finney-Smith scored 19 points, while Spencer Dinwiddie scored 18 points. However, Finney-Smith had a 63.7% field-goal percentage (7/11), while Dinwiddie had a 35% field-goal percentage (5/14). So while they both scored a similar amount of points, Finney-Smith shot more efficiently and with fewer attempts than Dinwiddie.

Box scores are also good for tracking averages over the course of the season. Game box scores show stats for single games, which isn’t enough to draw conclusions. For example, Maxi Kleiber had the most rebounds according to the game box score against the Celtics, but the team leader in rebounds over the season was Luka Dončić. The NBA also gives titles to the leaders of various statistical categories at the end of the season, which is tracked through a box score format which tracks averages only.

The box score is a relatively simple tool, but paints a great picture when you read it. Some argue that fixating on box scores, and stats in general, are flawed because it ignores the intangibles that one can observe from watching the game. But stats are highly valuable to teams nowadays, who are now more than ever creating advanced stats to create improvements and detect shortcomings from player and team performances. While the box score is not as advanced, it is the basis of the statistics that many NBA teams and fans have come to value and appreciate.

Basketball statistics: where to look and how to apply?

Basketball statistics play an important role. It helps analysts and bettors to learn patterns, current trends, latest trends, to study all the indicators of teams and athletes, to predict the possible result of the match and the total. Many novice players are wondering, where to look for statistics for basketball , what parameters exist and how to use them. The answers to all these questions are available in this material.

What about statistics in basketball?

As you know, the team consists of the main five and reserve performers. Each basketball player plays in his own position. Two athletes are assigned to weak zones, so that at any moment the coach has the opportunity to strengthen the position by releasing fresh blood.

There are three positions in basketball:

  • Forward.
  • Center.
  • Protector.

Each performer has certain skills, the application of which on the site leads to a set of indicators. They determine the player's level and relate to statistics:

  • Glasses.
  • Gears.
  • Interceptions.
  • Block shots.
  • Rebounds.
  • Losses.
  • Fouls.
  • Free throws.
  • Implementation of 2 and 3-point shots.

Basketball statistics. Where to looking for?

There are really a lot of useful sites with statistics on basketball games on the Internet. We tried to choose for our readers the most effective projects that have been operating on the Web for a long time and provide users with reliable information. In addition, statistics are also provided by legal bookmakers. Which of the bookmakers offers the best line and extensive list, read here.

Sports.ru and NBA Stats

The Sports.ru domain has been launched since 1998. This is a sports publishing house that reviews sports in all its manifestations. More than 7 million users visit the portal per month. Relevant materials are published as quickly as possible so that readers are aware of updates from the world of sports.

Ordinary registered users have the opportunity to create their own blog and write about anything. All sports disciplines are covered. Not only news is added, but also interesting collections, polls, notes, videos, etc. In addition, a separate section dedicated to the NBA has been introduced. Most likely, this is a page with statistics from the official supplier - the National Basketball League website, that is, the information here is as accurate as possible. If you do not want to visit the aforementioned Russian-language portal, you can immediately go to the link: stats.nba.com.

These are not just numbers, signs, symbols. The second column is the basketball players. The third is the team they play for. It's three letters because it's an abbreviated name. For example, POR - Portland Trail Blazers, ATL - Atlanta Hawks, DAL - Dallas Mavericks, MIN - Minnesota Timberwolves, etc. The fourth column is the number of games played (G - Games). Fifth - matches in the starting lineup (GS - Games Started). Now let's take a closer look at other points:

  • PPG - Points Per Game - Points per game. Other sites may have the abbreviation PTS, which stands for points (points).
  • RPG - Rebounds Per Game.
  • APG - Assists Per Game - Assists.
  • MPG – Minutes Per Game – Minutes played.
  • EFF - Player Efficiency Rating - Player efficiency rating.
  • FG – Field goal percentage
  • 3P – 3-point – Percentage of 3-point shots made.
  • FT - Free Throw Percentage - The percentage of free throws converted.
  • DEF - Players Defensive Impact - The effectiveness of defensive actions.
  • SPG - Steals Per Game - Interceptions.
  • BPG - Blocks Per Game - Blocks (block shots).
  • PF - Personal fouls - Personal fouls.

There is an option to use a filter by statistical indicators. For example, you need to determine the TOP-5 best basketball players in the league by rebounds, etc.

This is not a complete list of statistical parameters. Only the main ones that are important when predicting basketball matches. There are also additional elements. A complete glossary is available on Wikipedia or on the official NBA website. It is very important for novice bettors to understand the main indicators, as well as to watch live matches in order to understand what the essence of the game is.

Annabet and 24score

Two very similar projects. Both cover the results and statistics for several sports at once:

  • Football.
  • Basketball.
  • Hockey.
  • Tennis.
  • Handball.
  • Baseball.
  • Volleyball.
  • NFL.

Website 24score is a more advanced site. In addition to results, standings, face-to-face confrontations and upcoming matches, the resource offers statistics on totals, halves, and quarters.

Dozens of championships from different countries are available, as well as top tournaments: Euroleague, NBA, VTB United League, World Championship, etc.

A less popular and less popular project is AnnaBet . There are plenty of championships, but there is much less useful information for those who bet on basketball. True, there is one useful feature - a graph that displays the current game form of the teams.

MSN Sport

The project was implemented on the Microsoft News platform. Two sections related to basketball are available to readers and forecasters:

  • NBA.
  • Euroleague.

What the site owners offer:

  • Results.
  • Calendar.
  • Current news.
  • Detailed team and player statistics (NBA only).

Convenient filter by statistical indicators. Moreover, the entire abbreviation has been translated into Russian, and when you hover over the desired element, the full transcript is displayed. For example, SBI - made shots from the field, %SB - the percentage of free throws.

SlamDunk

Another useful basketball resource. The project has been operating since 2000. Updates continue to this day. Both Russian and world basketball, NBA, women's basketball are covered. Here you will find:

  • News.
  • Video.
  • Discussion topics on the forum.
  • Tables.
  • Results of previous meetings.
  • Calendar of upcoming games.
  • Statistics on tournaments and basketball players.

For which competitions the "Statistics" section is provided:

  • Euroleague.
  • WBT United League.
  • NBA.

What indicators are available for analysis:

  • Points.
  • Rebounds.
  • Gears.
  • Interceptions.
  • Block shots.
  • Number of minutes played.

This information is enough to make a competent forecast for the basketball confrontation.

Sofascore

Online resource SofaScore provides users with a lot of useful information:

  • More than 70 basketball leagues.
  • Statistics for all tournaments.
  • Online results.
  • Line-ups.

The data is updated automatically. Add a championship to your favorites and keep an eye on what's happening in the regular season or playoffs.

The site is filled with requested information. For example, select the match you are interested in and in the "Statistics" section you will find not only the number of blocked shots and assists, but also other interesting indicators, for example, the number of timeouts, whether there was overtime, how many points the teams scored, how many were in the lead in total separately hosts and guests, rebounds in attack and defense, etc.

Statistics on betting sites

Very often, players do not have to use third-party resources. By choosing a reputable and high-quality bookmaker, a person gets at his disposal all possible betting tools. These include sections "Results", "Statistics", the "Bet Buyback" function, live video broadcasts, bonuses, promotions and much more. We are interested in statistics. It is available on the websites of most legal betting companies. To get to this section, you must select the item of the same name in the main menu. We analyzed the sections of statistics from different bookmakers and formed a bookmaker rating that provides detailed statistics, and not just the result of games and the standings:

  • 1xbet.
  • Match Center BC Liga Stavok.
  • Marathon.

Three bookmakers at once have weaker (much less useful statistical information) and the same software that produces statistics:

  • 888.ru
  • PariMatch.
  • Olymp.

The same amount of information, but on a different engine, is offered by the FonBet bookmaker.

Conclusion. How to make a basketball prediction based on statistics?

It's time to sum up the intermediate results and answer the question of how to make a competent forecast for a basketball game, having so many useful resources in hand. It is necessary to compare the statistical indicators of the two teams, find out about the current form, the presence of motivation, previous results, face-to-face confrontations, and also thoroughly study the line-ups of the teams.

It is important for defensemen to consider rebounds, interceptions, blocks, turnovers and fouls. For attackers - the implementation of shots from the field, the implementation of free throws, assists, fouls and losses. For centers it is important to consider everything, but the most important thing is the accuracy and efficiency of the transfer.

Such an analysis requires a lot of free time, but this approach will allow you to form the most objective and accurate forecast for basketball.

5, February 2020

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What are the basketball statistics and what to do with it - Personal Folog - Personal Folog - Personal Folog - Personal Fologs - Personal Folla

In 2015, actor Jesse Eisenberg (who played a nerd in Zombieland, a nerd Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network, and turned Lex Luthor into a nerd in Batman v Superman) wrote a great article for New magazine. Yorker titled "An Honest Film Review".

In the article, Eisenberg acted as "Critic" and wrote an imaginary review of a non-existent film. What is the "honesty" of his review? Describing his own thought process, The Critic indicates that he cared little about the film itself.

At first, "The Critic" squirms in his chair when he learns that the film is based on a story that he had in his head a few years ago while studying at film school. Then it turns out that the script was written by a guy who went to college with The Critic but turned out to be more successful in the end. The film itself quickly bores Criticism, since the screening was organized on the other side of the city, where it was terribly inconvenient to get to. After watching the film, "The Critic" decides to drive up to some student, she sends him off and the mood of the "Critic" becomes even worse. At the opening reception, The Critic meets a colleague from The Times magazine. The guy from the Times liked the film, so the Critic decides to specifically write a devastating review of the film purely out of integrity - The Critic was interviewed by the Times, but he was not hired .

In the end, the "Critic" changes his mind and calls the film he saw the best picture of the year, purely out of a desire to get his quote on the poster. "The Critic" also dreams that a girl from his native New Jersey will see his name on a poster, call him, and they will be a couple again.

In short, an article about how people who form other people's opinions themselves are subject to a bunch of cognitive distortions and in the course of their professional activities turn out to be monstrously biased.

But in the NBA, scouts write thousands of reports on tens of thousands of players from all over the world. You just read about this job - away from home, constantly on the road, in dusty and stuffy halls, constantly lack of sleep, terrible life and bad food, the need to digest tons of other people's articles for the sake of information about this or that player (the inevitable influence of the herd instinct) without confidence that this player will ever even get close to the NBA at least at a distance of a cannon shot.

Now imagine yourself in the place of the general manager of the NBA team. And it's okay if you need to make a decision regarding, for example, a bilateral contract with a deep reserve player. What if it's about spending the draft pick, your most valuable asset, on a guy from the Greek second division? And so you start to scout reports that they wrote at half past two in the morning after three liters of lousy coffee. Ideally, you would like to have as much information as possible in your hands to make a decision - videos, scouts' opinions, interview results, partner/coach feedback about the player and, of course, statistics. Without her today nowhere.

In today's sport, managers are very sensitive to ensure that decisions are made as objectively as possible. There are many tools to achieve objectivity. Sam Hinkey, former Gen. Sixers manager and author of The Trial, says that by clinging to one line in a scout report or one phrase thrown in an informal conversation (like "This guy has the best dribbling I've ever seen"), he could force his whole the scouting department write reports specifically on the dribbling of this one player. Farhan Zaidi, who built a dynasty with the Dodgers, claims to practice anonymous polls and often talk to scouts about the same aspect of a particular baseball player's game in almost different rooms in order to form a more or less balanced opinion. Daryl Morey, Gen. a Rockets manager, considers one of the most powerful ways to evaluate his own performance is role reversal: “We don't want to give Kyle Lowry to Toronto for a first-round pick. And if we were in the place of the Raptors, we would consider this pick for Lowry overpaid.

But the distinguishing feature of modern basketball, and sports in general, are numbers. That is statistics. Humanity has not yet come up with a more objective tool for evaluating players when making decisions.

What we understand today as statistics was formed long and painfully. The glasses have always been there. Later, rebounds and assists appeared, but since they appeared already in the 50s, we can assume that they were also almost always there. Minutes per game data, for example, became available in season 1951/52.

In a sense, the 1973/74 season became a breakthrough - then officially they began to count block shots, interceptions, and also began to divide rebounds into those that were made in defense or in attack. Four years later (1977/78), losses began to succumb to numerical measurements, and from 1982 even the number of games in the starting lineup of their total number.

For decades, statistics has evolved like a living organism. When it became clear that the numbers of the same performance in themselves mean little, they began to divide them into 100 possessions or recalculate for 36 minutes. When it became clear that a three-point shot is 50% more valuable than a two-point shot, they came up with eFG%, which takes this moment into account. They began to calculate, for example, the share of rebounds (assistance, interceptions) of one player from the team ones.

More to come. More and more perversions appeared, such as attempts to measure the contribution of one player to the team's final wins (Win Shares) by playing offensively (OWS) or defensively (DWS). There were now multiple layers of statistical madness within a single figure. For example, Offensive Box Plus/Minus calculates the level of offensive play in relation to the level of the average for the league, while it is formed from data recalculated for 100 possessions, and Value over Replacement Player (VORP) also compares the data obtained as part of the Box calculation Plus/Minus with mathematically calculated indicators of the average player in the league.

The whirlwind of all these equations and formulas can make your head spin, but the NBA didn't stop there.

In 2010, the process of introducing systems began to track any movement of basketball players on the parquet. The NBA has partnered with SportVu, a soccer firm that collects data from which to create heat maps and diagrams of the movement of the ball between players. SportVu developed a system that would track and convert into data the movements of all 10 players around the court. In the 2010/11 season, Dallas, Houston, Oklahoma and San Antonio installed SportVu cameras in their arenas, a year later they were joined by Boston and Golden State, and before the season - In 2013/14, the NBA mandated that this system be installed in all arenas in the league.

(By the way, in the 2017/18 season, the NBA changed its partner and instead of SportVu entered into an agreement with Second Spectrum. As far as I understand, the essence of the technology has remained the same).

In short, a nuclear bomb was dropped on the world of basketball statistics, the shock wave after the explosion of which is still felt. The NBA received a completely new tool for evaluating players, who now had nowhere to hide to hide their shortcomings.

Thanks to “video surveillance” systems, everyone, both inside the league and outside it, has access to data on how much a player runs per match and at what speed, from what point on the court he shoots more/less often or more accurately/worse, how much he on average holds the ball in his hands, how many shots to the floor he makes on average for each separate period of possession of the ball in offense and how far he is from the ball when rebounding in attack / defense.

This is how it all looks like:

If we bring all the existing statistical parameters into one simple scheme, we get the following picture:

1. Statistics

2. Metrics

2.1. Formula

2.2. Observables

3. Secret data

Statistics - this is the most elementary thing in which basketball is measured: points, rebounds, assists.

Pros : easy to calculate and explain.

Cons : Gives a very limited view of the game.

Basic statistics, unsurprisingly, gives a basic idea of ​​the game as an individual player, and can be a reason to think about the accents of the game as a whole.

Even the simplest indicators can carry significant value. For example, it is known that among the main statistical indicators, the number of victories on the team's account today (information for the 2016/17 season) is best correlated with:

  1. game hit percentage
  2. percentage of three-pointers made
  3. total number of 3-pointers made
  4. assist-to-loss ratio

Not advanced math, of course, but these four points give a good idea of ​​what a good team must do to win. Minnesota, New York and Sacramento threw the fewest three-pointers in the 2017/18 season. Orlando, Lakers and Phoenix hit the worst from a distance.

Bad teams play badly – ​​no wonder. But it's important to notice when a seemingly decent team fails at some base metric, because that element can be one of the factors that explains the lower than expected bottom line. Denver, for example, last year allowed opponents to hit with the highest percentage from beyond the three-point arc. "Minnesota", as noted above, was on the list of teams that are less likely than others to throw from a distance.

Based on simple numbers, more global conclusions about the game can be confirmed. For example, NBA teams averaged just 9.7 offensive rebounds in 2017-18, the lowest number in history since offensive rebounds began counting. The number of free throws has also reached an all-time low. On the other hand, for the first time in the league over the past three seasons, there has been a history of teams shooting more three-pointers than free throws. And if in the 2015/16 season the gap was small (24.1 3PA versus 23.4 FTA), now it can already be called significant (29.0 3PA vs. 21.7 FTA).

Here are three factors that form the picture of modern basketball. He is fast, three-pointer, and as soft as possible for the players (less fighting under the boards due to the emphasis on stretching and finding spaces) and spectators (less stoppages for free kicks). In other words, fun and pleasing to the eye. So it's not surprising that the popularity of the NBA is growing in line with how much more attractive the game itself becomes.

Formula statistics is what is called "advanced statistics". This can include all kinds of statistics, within which more complex mathematical calculations are used, such as recalculation for possessions or the ratio of one indicator to another.

Pros : provide a more advanced understanding of basketball.

Cons : harder to understand and use, rarely mentioned in fan discussions.

Dean Oliver, who wrote Basketball on Paper in 2004, is considered to be the father of advanced basketball statistics. Oliver is basketball Bill James who opened the door to baseball cybermetrics.

It is Oliver who is the creator of the "four factors for basketball success" system. In this quartet he included:

  • effective shooting percentage (eFG%) taking into account the difference in value between two-point and three-point shots
  • percentage of losses (TOV%) - the number of losses per 100 possessions
  • rebound percentage (RB%) - number of defensive and offensive rebounds out of total available rebounds
  • Free throw rating (FTr) - the ratio of free throws to the total number of shots taken by both teams

Oliver distributed the importance of each factor as follows: 40% of success depends on the accuracy of the shots, 25% - on the percentage of losses, 20% - on the percentage of rebounds and 15% - on free throws.

As you can see, the structure is very similar to the four factors needed to win that I gave in the section on regular statistics. However, in 2004, such innovation blew people's heads off.

Within the framework of formula statistics, everyone can exercise even until they are blue in the face. For example, John Hollinger's well-known PER indicator is built on a complex formula, which is still based on elementary shows - points, shots, assists, that's all. The advancement of PER lies in the fact that (a) it is calculated based on the pace of the game and compares the performance of a player with the average level in the league (b) is one of the most publicized versions of the so-called "all in one" statistics that try to express the game of any player in one single figure.

Of course, PER is controversial. One of the most telling examples is that Bruce Bowen has an average career PER of 8.2. PER for good players is in the region of 18-20, and 8.2 for Bowen indicates that he should not have become a three-time league champion, but immediately go to the VTB league.

Or here is another interesting example of the use of advanced statistics - the legacy of Carmelo Anthony.

On the one hand, 10 all-star appearances, 6 All-NBA All-NBA teams and the status of a capricious but prominent player of his era, one of the league's leading scorers for a decade and a half. It seems like he should fight Alex English in the list of players of all time.

And if you look at Melo's advanced stats:

  • isn't even in the top 250 in history in terms of career offense rating
  • is not in the top 250 for TS%, a measure of shot conversion that includes 2-point, 3-point and free throw shots in one formula
  • ranked 98th all-time in Offensive Box Plus/Minus and 115th in VORP
  • Win Shares 48 minutes tied with Corey Maggetti for 215th

"Observed" metrics I named all the data that is tracked precisely thanks to systems like SportVu, and also provided by paid services like Synergy.

Pros of : professional understanding of the game, visibility, maximum depth and accessibility available to the layman.

Cons : a huge amount of information, impossible to digest if not professionally involved in basketball as a scout, manager or professional journalist.

This is the level of detail of the game, which was made for 1% of nerds and those who are financially connected with basketball in one way or another. The opportunity to watch Charlotte's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist shoot from the middle after receiving the ball from the screen or get offensive rebounds is, in most cases, the lot of those who are paid to do it.

On the other hand, it was the ability to track players' shots that eventually turned into user-friendly signs for the implementation of shots from different zones. The pioneer of such charts was Kirk Goldsberry, who, by the way, now works in the analytical department of the San Antonio. You probably remember him from these pictures:

It is thanks to the “observed” metrics that we can question the usefulness and effectiveness of Russell Westbrook’s game, because now we know that he occupies one of the last places in the league in terms of distance from the player at the time of the shot on defense, and also fumbles excessively with the ball (league leader in ball control time, number of shots to the floor on average) and fills himself with empty rebounds (very high rate of unopposed rebounds) at the expense of Stephen Adams (one of the best players in the league for rebounding), throws a lot from the dribble (10. 3 per game, 1st in the league) and does it extremely inaccurately (39.4% eFG%, 4th worst in the league).

But in fact, with the analysis of data obtained as a result of observations of the actions of players on the court, everything is not at all simple. Surely all these systems greatly simplify the process of preparing for matches by the teams themselves, but for outside observers, most of the available information is of little use. In the end, any metrics are just a reflection of what happened. Fortunately or unfortunately, humanity has not yet come up with such systems that would evaluate the correctness of the decisions made on the site, the timeliness of changes in defense, or the effectiveness of various nuances like screens.

Even with all the information we have available, we find ourselves unable to penetrate the brains of coaches who make a game plan and into the heads of basketball players who implement this plan correctly or incorrectly. We see what happened, but we don’t yet know what should have happened - where the player should have passed the ball or in which direction to take an extra step in order to increase his chances of success at the end of the episode.

Basketball is not yet calculated to such an extent. This is a non-linear game. The NBA certainly doesn't stop at trying to figure it out.

NBA team secrets

Naturally, here we have to enter the territory of conjecture and assumptions.

What aspects of the game can be affected by some internal models and metrics created on the basis of the analytical departments of the clubs? Yes to everything. Each NBA team has its own:

  • methods for assessing the current state of players and predicting their future performances
  • algorithms for negotiating and calculating the potential and optimal cost of each player
  • data to analyze the quality of decisions made by players on the court
  • tables evaluating the value of draft picks
  • interview results with thousands of potential newcomers
  • player injury and health data

At the same time, it is not known to what extent in the internal discussions of scouts and club managers the usual statistical calculations known to the inhabitants are quoted. Daryl Morey (pictured), for example, admitted during a Q&A session on Reddit that even the most sophisticated “amateur” models and metrics are almost never used in decision-making within NBA teams. He also called defensive play "super-contextual stuff" and noted that no amateur has enough data to fully analyze the quality of an individual player's defensive skills through some kind of ratings or statistics.

As a result, it turns out that all our conversations and discussions of players, most likely, cannot be compared with how players are evaluated within the NBA itself. So when it seems to us that we understand the motives for a draft pick, trade or signing, then this is probably a misleading impression.

What, then, remains to be done by a simple fan who wants to get a little better into the intricacies of the NBA?

In English there is a concept of an eye test - this is a personal impression of the player's actions, his behavior on and off the court. It turns out that the most accessible metric for a basketball fan is still the old-fashioned method of evaluation through a subjective view.


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